NEWS
24 Jun 2022 - Hedge Clippings |24 June 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 24 June 2022 Last week's Hedge Clippings noted that central bankers were caught between a rock and a hard place, trying to manage inflation by tightening monetary policy, and at the same time managing a balancing act trying to prevent their economies falling into a recession. This week Australia's media only seemed to have a single topic (leaving aside Lisa Wilkinson's Logies stupidity) - namely inflation and wages. (No doubt the pedants will correctly note that's two topics, but they sort of go hand in hand.) The trouble with trying to curb inflation is that it's like trying to put a smell back in the bottle - once it's out, it's out. (Only genies and little ships go back in the bottle.) There was a chance, ever so slight, that whilst inflation was "transient" or external, it might have been possible to argue it was temporary. However, once the central banks started to lift rates, it was out. The combination of higher mortgage repayments and inflation leads to wage pressure, with the inevitable risk of an interest rate/wage/price spiral, and so it goes on. And on. Meanwhile Putin put a spike in the spokes, energy markets went into a spin, lettuces got into the act, and the price side of the spiral was confirmed. The Prime Minister had no option but to follow through on his election promise to push for the minimum wage to rise by the then inflation rate, and the Fair Work Commission obliged by lifting it by 5.2% for 184,000 lowest paid workers, and by 4.6% for another 2.6 million workers on higher awards. RBA governor Dr. Philip Lowe said he expected inflation to peak at 7% by the end of the year, and then "moderate", and while he doesn't believe official interest rates will reach 4%, he does admit his forecasting record in that regard hasn't been spectacular, to say the least. As far as forecasting a recession, he did at least cover himself by saying while he "doesn't see one on the horizon ... you can't rule anything out." To make his job easier, Dr. Lowe wants wages growth to be kept at 3.5%, while the ACTU's Sally McManus, not surprisingly wants her members to push for wage rises in line with inflation, which based on the RBA's forecast, means 7%, and predictably saying company profits are the cause of inflation. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was even blunter than Philip Lowe - or maybe more realistic depending on one's view, acknowledging that a recession in the US was certainly a possibility. At the same time he reiterated that two key factors driving inflation - namely, energy prices and supply chain constraints - were out of his control, and that if he had to raise rates by 1% to curb inflation at the next or future meetings, he would. Against this backdrop it is no wonder that markets have rotated from last year's risk on, to this year's risk off, with the basis for equity valuations and multiples finally switching from forecast revenue, (or even consumer or subscriber numbers) to earnings, and then to recurring earnings in particular. In the upcoming reporting season there will no doubt be further revisions to equity prices as investors' and analysts' focus switches to recurring profit, or ROE. As the P side of the P/E ratio falls, so value - and buyers - will no doubt return. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Manager Insights | Collins St Asset Management Megatrends drive sustainable growth | Insync Fund Managers Record high inflation could trigger a fresh eurozone financial crisis | Magellan Asset Management |
|
|
May 2022 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Paragon Australian Long Short Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
17 Jun 2022 - Hedge Clippings |17 June 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 17 June 2022 Central Banks are caught between a rock and a hard place, namely inflation and a recession. Of course with the benefit of hindsight, history shows putting off the inevitable doesn't work, and that hope is not a viable strategy. RBA Governor Philip Lowe is now saying inflation is likely to be around 7% by the end of the year, and it is reasonable for the cash rate to hit 2.5%. Given a further 0.75% rise in the US - the largest for almost 30 years - another 50 bps from the RBA in July is not out of the question, with another 50 bps prior to Christmas. The issue for Lowe is that many, if not all, of the drivers of inflation are outside his control, with only higher interest rates at his disposal to rein in the problem. The combination of higher prices for fuel and everyday food, combined with increased mortgage costs, and the threat of energy shortages and increased costs, will only add further to inflation, and risk impacting consumer confidence, demand - and spending. Which of course is the objective, but it's a fine balance. Whilst central banks pumped free money into the system via QE, and lowered interest rates, investors happily responded by inflating markets, particularly tech and growth stocks, with the usual cry of "this time it will be different". Realistically it rarely is, and investors are now faced with the fact that markets often fall faster than they rise. Comments from fund managers that Hedge Clippings speaks to follow a common thread: Buy quality stocks at a reasonable or discounted price, and understand that markets will be volatile, and overshoot both on the upside and downside. To that we would add diversify, both across funds, strategy and asset class. News & Insights Is this a buying opportunity? | Equitable Investors Why country risk matters | 4D Infrastructure Why it's all about Earnings Growth | Insync Fund Managers |
|
|
May 2022 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
10 Jun 2022 - Hedge Clippings |10 June 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 10 June 2022 Careful what you wish for! Anthony Albanese and his team may have waited nine long years to get back to the other side of the chamber, but having won the right to do so, they've walked into a perfect storm, but not of their own making. Given that the first few post election days were spent with the new PM overseas, and the infamous behind the scenes factions spent a week deciding who he could have on the team bus anyway, you could say that 2 weeks is a long time in politics. In that time memories of Scomo's drought and fires have been replaced by an icy draft from the Antarctic, just as the world's energy supplies are in Putin's cross-hairs, and Australia's aging and ancient coal fired power stations start to give up the ghost. In a reflection of The Rime of the Ancient Mariner's "water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink", Australia's bountiful supply of gas is in short, or expensive, supply for home consumption. What's a climate activist to do, and who shot the albatros? Meanwhile, Chinese military rhetoric stepped up when a RAAF plane flew over a couple of sand banks in the South China Sea, Dutton fired up the debate over nuclear submarine availability to test relations with our major ally, and inflation, at this stage externally driven, continued to push the RBA to raise rates again (and higher) than expected, and two years of COVID induced labour shortages continue to test business and employers. To think it wasn't that long ago that the RBA and their overseas counterparts were trying desperately to generate some inflation. Back then there was concern over sky-rocketing house prices, which has now been replaced by fears of mortgage arrears, household debt and serviceability. The old equity market adage of "sell in May, and go away" didn't work this time around - in hindsight it should have been "remember, remember, to sell in November", but given the previous bank or share market crashes in October (1907, 1929, 1987), that wouldn't have helped. Unfortunately, the only word that springs to Hedge Clipping's simple mind that rhymes with October is "sober" - but as it's a Friday afternoon, and before a long weekend, let's not go there. News & Insights Manager Insights Video | Magellan Asset Management Sustainable earnings growth over multiple cycles | Insync Fund Managers Superbugs are outsmarting antibiotics | Magellan Asset Management |
|
|
April 2022 Performance News May 2022 Performance News Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Australian Equities Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
3 Jun 2022 - Hedge Clippings |03 June 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 03 June 2022
Once an election is done and dusted - or in this case lost and won - it's usual for the incoming government to switch from promising how well - or much better - they'll be at managing the economy, to suddenly trying to dampen voters' expectations. So it was this week, as the incoming treasurer, Dr. Jim Chalmers, warned of inflation "almost out of control" and "skyrocketing", at the same time as GDP growth came in ahead of forecasts, and a trade surplus of $10.5 billion, more than $1 billion ahead of consensus expectations. It's no wonder then to discover that Treasurer Chalmers' Ph.D. was not awarded in economics, but in political science, writing his doctoral thesis on none other than Paul Keating, the great political brawler. Blaming the previous mob for the problems facing the incoming government is as old as the hills - just ask Tony Abbott, who reminded us of the perils of the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd years for as long as he could until even his own party grew tired of it and gave him the heave-ho. For an incoming Treasurer, and a Dr. of Political Science to boot, it was pretty inevitable, but we're not sure it fooled too many, other than his own diehard supporters. Generally we haven't noticed too much of such political point scoring to date, with PM Albanese a refreshing change from "Bulldozer" Scomo. However, new energy minister Chris Bowen, last time around a hopeful treasurer himself until he and Bill Shorten shot themselves in their collective feet, couldn't help himself when talking about the unfolding gas crisis, which we understood in the immediate term might have more to do with the problems in Ukraine. Which leads us away from politics to finance and ESG investing, or at least consideration of ESG in funds management. This trend has been building for some time, and AGL's well publicised issues at the hands of Mike Cannon-Brookes, supported by big super, is - if you'll excuse the analogy - the canary in the coal mine. With climate and the environment front and centre (perhaps not all the way to the right) both nationally and globally, ESG credentials and investing will be one of the dominant fund management themes of the future. Rightfully, the incoming government has a clear mandate (particularly if you add in the Green and Teal vote) to act on energy/climate change and the environment. The challenge will be the speed and cost - in all its forms - of the transition away from fossil fuels, particularly coal. Meanwhile, there's been little to nothing heard about a push to nuclear energy as a reliable source of base load power. It's unlikely to happen under a Labour government, particularly one with the presence of the Greens in the Senate, but support for at least the investigation of Small Scale Nuclear should be on the table. If the Labour party can support nuclear powered submarines, and their small scale nuclear powered propellers, surely there's a precedent? News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Market Insights & Fund Performance | L1 Capital 10k Words | Equitable Investors Natural gas and midstream assets | 4D Infrastructure |
|
|
April 2022 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund May 2022 Performance News |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
27 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |27 May 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 27 May 2022
So the election (thankfully) is over. The result, with the benefit of hindsight, was predictable or at least hiding in plain sight. Whether one is pleased, disappointed, or couldn't care less would depend on your political hue - blue, red, green, teal, or yellow. Although he navigated the country reasonably safely through COVID, Scomo certainly stirred up some ill feeling across sections of the community who would normally have voted Liberal. Meanwhile, Albo didn't seem to be across all the economic facts, was sidelined for a week with COVID, and didn't appear to be the most inspirational of campaigners. However, it looks like he'll just get across the line in his own right, albeit with less than one third of the primary vote. Irrespective of one's view either way, having a clear winner is positive. Having laid out his policies, the new PM and his team should be entitled to get on with implementing them, without being distracted or blackmailed by minority groups with their own agenda. They'll be able to do that in the lower house. The Senate might be a different matter. So now we can get back to normal - or should that be the "new normal", the economy? In many ways, not much has changed. Debt levels are sky high at the household level, thanks to over a decade of falling interest rates, and, over the last couple of years, government COVID assistance thrown by the bucket-load at a willing individual and business community, whether it was needed or not. The problem with throwing bucket-loads of anything is that while some hits the mark, much of it misses and lands up being wasted - or adding to the mess. Market wise, sooner or later there was going to be a day of reckoning, with inflation back with a vengeance, aided by COVID, supply chain issues, and a war in Europe's backyard. Meanwhile, valuations in the tech/crypto sector in particular defied long term history lessons, and investors are learning, or being reminded of the lessons - or benefits - of diversification. Diversification can take many forms - from the simple (and not always very effective) investment in a broadly based low cost "index" fund to a concentrated fund investing in just 15 or 20 companies within the same index. However, depending on the skill of the fund manager, the concentrated fund might outperform in one market environment but significantly underperform in another. Thus logically, the careful or risk averse investor (those that hope for the best, but plan for the worst) spread their investments across funds to avoid manager risk, across strategies, and across asset classes. Diversification works well, as long as one considers the correlation between funds, strategy and asset class. In addition to correlation, a key indicator to consider is a fund's Down Capture Ratio, which in effect just measures correlation in negative markets. All too often, particularly in rapidly falling markets, diversification doesn't work if the correlation is high (as it is at present) between equities and bonds. With over 650 funds on the Fundmonitors.com database, there's the dilemma, or difficulty, of too much choice. In rapidly changing market environments, particularly in negative or falling markets, make sure that your fund selections are not only diversified, but also not overly correlated. For instance, including long/short funds, or in the current environment, funds investing in "clean energy" minerals such as Argonaut's or Terra Capital's focus on lithium or nickel. Outside equities, alternatives such as Laureola's Life Settlements, which has zero correlation to any other market or asset class. News & Insights A brave new world | Kardinia Capital Equity risk premium | IQuay Global Investors Revenge Travel | Insync Fund Managers Infrastructure assets are well placed for an era of inflation | Magellan Asset Management |
|
|
April 2022 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
20 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |20 May 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 20 May 2022
Well, with one day to go, we're finally at the end of the road - or depending on one's perspective, one day from the start of a new one. Maybe that should be a fork in the road, depending on one's pronunciation of the word "fork". Come to think of it, with the recorded number of postal votes (for which counting doesn't start until Sunday) and the potential for a hung parliament, the outcome might not be known for a few days, or even weeks. The polls are suggesting a high proportion of undecided voters, or maybe that should be a large number who aren't that happy with Scomo, but haven't been swayed or convinced by the slogans (most, as far as we can work out, devoid of solid policy to back them up) of those hoping to take his place. Slogans or otherwise, it does indicate there's a level of underlying dissatisfaction in general in the community. One Scomo hater (and certainly not undecided) we spoke to this week complained he'd handled COVID badly (actually badly is a polite version of his rant) which of all the negative things he might reference, Scomo's handling of COVID, or the results, shouldn't be in question. This week the USA passed the sad milestone of 1 million COVID related deaths for a population of 332 million or one in every 332 Americans. Australia's COVID fatalities are now at 7,986, or 1 in 3,180 of our population. In round terms, we're 10 times less likely to have died from COVID than an American. While our number is 7,986 more than we'd like it to be, it hardly warrants the criticism that it's been badly handled. Of all the slogans, promises, or policies that have been announced, the most detailed and well publicised has been the respective support from both major parties for first home buyers, which, from our understanding, were both well intentioned, but targeting a different demographic. Albanese's "Help to Buy" policy was narrowly cast, both by virtue of the limit of 10,000 recipients each year, (so only 6.6% of the 150,000 first home buyers each year) and their annual income eligibility - $90,000 for singles, and $120,000 for couples, and only required a deposit of 2%. The government would fund up to 40% of the purchase price interest free, which would be capped depending on location. On the other side, Scomo's "Super Home Buyer Scheme" offer was more widely cast, allowing first home buyers to withdraw up to 40% of their super (up to a maximum of $50,000) to help fund their first home, in reality in most cases making it assistance with raising the deposit. Both schemes have their merits and deficiencies, or at least limitations, depending on one's financial position. A low income purchaser is unlikely to have sufficient super in the first case, and their issue is more likely to be being priced out of the housing market, which Albo's scheme, however limited, would resolve. For the wider audience, and possibly those on a higher income, an extra $50,000 towards the deposit, could make the difference, albeit it would likely be less than 10% of the purchase price of the property. Critics of both schemes came out of the woodwork. Industry Super Australia (ISA) presumably more concerned about missing out on fees than their members being able to gain a foothold in the housing market, (and therefore set themselves up to own their own home outright on retirement) claimed it was financially risky for the new home buyer and would hurt all Australians with a super account. Others said it would push the price of property up and therefore be self defeating. ISA's concern seems somewhat self-serving, given that in both cases the funds "borrowed" have to be returned on the sale of the property, along with a proportion of the capital gain. Over the last 10 years, the average capital gain on city residential property has been 5.61% vs an average of 8% for super, so technically they're correct (except those results were to June 2021 and ignore the latest down-turn). Except that ignores the fact that most aspiring first home buyers would readily forgo 2% p.a. to not paying rent, and at least get a foot on the bottom rung of the (CGT free) property ladder. It's unfortunate, politics being politics, that whoever wins the election can't offer both schemes, one targeted (correctly) at those unlikely to ever own their own property, and the other at those slightly more fortunate, but who still need assistance with their deposit in the over heated (but we suspect falling) property market. Meanwhile, what neither side seemed to have focused on (or have chosen not to) is what happens when the first home buyer wants to "trade up" to their next home in say 10 years' time? Under Albo's scheme (but less under Scomo's) 40% of their first home's sale price will go back from whence it came, meaning they'll either need to stay where they are forever, "trade down", or go back to the government of the day and ask for more. Therein lies an (Oliver) twist. News & Insights New Funds | FundMonitors.com What have rubber bands got to do with successful stock selection? | Insync Fund Managers Nestlé: innovation strengthens the moat | Magellan Asset Management Perception vs Reality: When a good story trumps rationality | Airlie Funds Management |
|
|
April 2022 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
13 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |13 May 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 13 May 2022
Given there are only 8 days until the election, it is difficult (as we'd much prefer) to avoid the subject in Hedge Clippings. One would have to say it's been a pretty unimpressive campaign on both sides, but that of course ignores the reality that this time around there's a real chance that "Teal" independents (who claim they're not a party in spite of their common policy, branding and major source of funding) will hold the balance of power in conjunction with the Greens. Of course, technically teal is a shade of blue, but it's not far off the green on the colour wheel. Politically a little less left, but that is possibly showing our political bias. A major topic of the campaign, and particularly this week, has been Albanese's economic credentials, or lack thereof. This week in our view he compounded that by agreeing to support a 5.1% rise to the basic wage to offset the effects of inflation on the lowest paid in the community. Unfortunately, that's the kind of shoot from the lip kind of thinking that will only feed into higher inflation and the potential for a wage/price spiral, whilst only assisting one section (those employed on low or basic wages) of the community. It wouldn't help pensioners or anyone not in the workforce. Hedge Clippings is only a kitchen (or possibly that should be pantry) economist at best, but that kind of thinking is either betraying Albo's left-wing leanings from his student days, or confirming he's not across the economic detail. Or both. An alternative, albeit more radical view, might be to tinker with the tax system - Maybe by raising the tax-free threshold one could assist the low paid worker by putting more in their pay packet without adding to inflationary or cost pressures on business and employers, although there would have to be adjustments elsewhere (presumably at the other end of the tax scale) to pay for it. In case you missed it, "adjustments" mean higher taxes for the higher or highest paid. This would be a dangerous call at election time, as Bill Shorten discovered to his cost leading into the last election. So, leaving the election (we're all sick of it anyway) and onto markets, which have finally succumbed to the warnings and storm clouds that have been well flagged on the horizon for some time. The tech sector, where valuations led all others skywards, has borne the brunt as leverage and excess are bringing valuations to earth. The sector most affected however has been cryptocurrencies where Bitcoin, the flagship, is now below US$30,000 and still falling. There are those evangelists and true believers who are convinced this is a great buying opportunity, and others, no doubt like Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, who will probably think there's a further $30,000 to fall. That's what makes a market. Meanwhile, many equity funds - particularly those that focused on tech and growth - have suffered over the past 6 months, there are others - long/short, alternatives, resource focused for example that are showing the benefits of a diversified fund portfolio. News & Insights Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable | FundMonitors.com Big Player - Investment Snapshot | Insync Fund Managers One of the ASX's most impressive stocks | Airlie Funds Management |
|
|
April 2022 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
6 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |06 May 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 06 May 2022
This week the RBA governor Philip Lowe abandoned his previous expectation made in March 2021, namely that for inflation to be sustainably in the 2-3% range, then wages growth (then 1.4% and the lowest on record) would need to be sustainably above 3%. As he wasn't expecting that to occur any time soon he stated "the cash rate is very likely to remain at its current level until at least 2024". The RBA's main concern at that time was that inflation was too low. The rest, as they say, is history. This week the RBA lifted official rates by 0.25% to 0.35%, and the big four banks' mortgage rates followed suit. One of the problems facing economists and their economic forecasting is that all the models rely on historical back-testing, and they're generally not so good when it comes to expecting the unexpected. In this case, wages growth has remained subdued (as per the RBA's expectations) in spite of a tight labour market and unemployment running at just 4%. However, inflation - at 5.1% over the 12 months to March - has jumped out of the blocks, thanks mainly to external and generally one-off factors. Back to March 2021, and RBA Governor Philip Lowe expected these one-off factors - which he described as "transitory" - to be mainly pandemic or drought related, and he also stated that the RBA board would "look through" these when setting monetary policy. The best laid plans etc., etc. To be fair (as Scomo is keen to point out), this is not unique to Australia, and no one to our knowledge anticipated Putin's invasion of Ukraine and its effect on oil and energy prices. Inflation in both the US (+8.5%), the UK (+7.0%), and the Euro area (+7.4%) are all higher than Australia's. As a result, the US Fed raised rates by 0.5% after lifting them by 0.25% in March, and overnight the Bank of England raised theirs by 0.25% to 1.0%. US equity markets, which have been anticipating rate rises, but maybe not by 50 bps, took fright, and the ASX has followed suit. Cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin, supposedly uncorrelated to equities, dropped over 8%. However, in Australia the main concern seems to be the overheated residential property market, which just goes to show that you can't please all the people all of the time. Thanks to 10 years of falling and ultra low interest rates, property prices have skyrocketed, benefiting some, and locking others out of the market. Higher rates will, according to some forecasters such as Christopher Joye in today's AFR, cause house prices "to correct by up to 25%". That should cause some grief for those recently joining the market, but please future new entrants. While our obsession with property prices will remain, the greatest issue from here is the balancing act the RBA will have managing the economy by trying to tame inflation (as above, largely caused by global "transitory" issues and events) using tighter monetary policy, while not stalling the economy and, thereby increasing unemployment as a result. Labour's shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers wants higher real wages (as does the RBA), but that's just going to feed into higher "non transitory" inflation. A balancing act indeed - and if history tells us anything, it's that the RBA is generally behind the curve when it comes to timing. News & Insights Seeking predictable returns during economic turmoil | Laureola Advisors Powell seeks 'immaculate disinflation'; one that rids the US of inflation without shedding jobs | Magellan Asset Management Are the winners today also the winners of tomorrow? | Insync Fund Managers |
|
|
March 2022 Performance News April 2022 Performance News Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund AIM Global High Conviction Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
29 Apr 2022 - Hedge Clippings |29 April 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 29 April 2022
Half way there - only three weeks to go... Only Anthony Albanese's staunchest supporters would describe him as an exciting, inspiring or charismatic politician. So whilst he's been locked away with COVID how come this election campaign has seemed even more boring than usual? To be fair, the requirements of, or for, a good PM don't have to include charisma, or to be inspirational, but even a touch of either would liven things up a bit. Given (according to the polls) it looks a better than even chance he'll be running the country in a few weeks' time one can only hope that whilst in isolation he has at least been able to brush up on his long forgotten, but recently recalled, economics degree. Hedge Clippings doesn't want to put any of our hard earned on the outcome, but our current call is for a minority government, with a group of independents (hopefully excluding Clive and his UAP) calling the shots. If that outcome comes to pass, that's democracy in action, but who knows where it will lead over the following three years? In the meantime there were two major confirmations over the past week: Firstly, that China is much smarter strategically and politically than Australia, the USA and New Zealand put together. Any thoughts that China WON'T militarise the Solomon Islands seem implausible, otherwise why would they have bothered in the first place, and why won't they release the terms of the deal? One can assume that no amount of pressure or persuasion will result in them retreating back to the Chinese mainland, the Spratly Islands - or even in due course, to Taiwan. Secondly, confirmation this week that inflation, and therefore interest rates, will soon be rising. A couple of months ago we thought this would not occur before June to avoid the impending election, but the RBA now has to justify why NOT to move in May at next Tuesday's board meeting. Whilst it will make all the headlines, the questions that really need to be asked are how many more, and how much higher will they go? Much of the latest annual 5.1% increase in inflation was sourced externally (oil, energy, COVID, supply chain, etc) or seasonal food prices, leaving the increase in the "trimmed rate" a slightly less alarming 3.7%. However, given inflation has averaged around 2.5% for the last 30 odd years, that's enough to worry the RBA, and the property market. Rates will certainly rise, but from such a low level that the effect on the economy, and the negative effects on consumer spending, will be magnified. How the government - whichever party or parties prevail - manages and the wage claims that follow will be critical. Given the uncertainty currenlty prevailing - both locally, and globally - the outcome of the election is going to be crucial, and we suspect the following three years will be painful. Much like the past two years, albeit for different reasons! News & Insights Hedging against inflation - gold or real estate? | Quay Global Investors The Experience Megatrend | Insync Fund Managers 10k Words | Equitable Investors |
|
|
March 2022 Performance News |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
22 Apr 2022 - Hedge Clippings |22 April 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 22 April 2022
At the end of last year Hedge Clippings' headline was "Certainty in Uncertain Times," as we speculated that inflation was here and now, but with uncertainty whether it was transitory or not. We also knew that interest rates were going to rise, but how soon, and by how much, still seemed unclear. Four months later, and the times seem more certain and uncertain than ever: The outlook for inflation seems clearer, higher, and more certain, while interest rates - at least based on Jerome Powell's overnight comments - are likely to rise by 50 bps at the Fed's meeting in May. Thanks to the election, the RBA is unlikely to move prior to June, but there are strong expectations for 2 or possibly 3 more moves prior to the end of the year. The longer term question will be the balance between rising rates taming inflation (much of which is global, supply chain induced or driven by the war in Ukraine) before damaging the economy, with predictions of a recession in the US by 2024. The tech heavy Nasdaq is now below its level of 12 months ago, confirming that the valuations assigned to the so called "growth" sector are a thing of the past (even leaving aside the difficulties experienced by Netflix this week). The broader S&P500 is faring better, but still well below its December peak, while locally the ASX200 still hovers close to it - for the moment. Politically, both locally and globally, uncertainty seems entrenched. With no clear end in sight, the war in Ukraine will both stretch on, and even assuming a cease fire, will stretch relations between NATO and Russia. Locally, the outcome of the Federal election on May 21 is likely to lead to further uncertainty on the domestic front. In this environment, manager and fund selection is more critical than ever, as is diversification across strategies, sectors and geographic mandates. News & Insights Airlie Insight: The dominant narrative of 2022 for stocks | Airlie Funds Management Megatrend in Focus: Enterprise Digitisation is accelerating | Insync Fund Managers Looming French presidential election | 4D Infrastructure |
|
|
March 2022 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Paragon Australian Long Short Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
