NEWS
11 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |11 November 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 11 November 2022 Superannuation in the spotlight Australia's compulsory super system came under fire this week - or, to be more accurate the inequality of the generous taxation treatment it provides those with higher incomes and higher super balances came under attack. From small beginnings way back in the 1980s, and the love child of Paul Keating and, from memory Bill Kelty (where's Google when you need it?) "Super" has been a super success by all accounts. Unfortunately, it has been tweaked - or raided - over the years, generally by politicians and in particular treasurers who couldn't and can't help themselves, particularly when it comes to other peoples' retirement savings. Having said that, John Howard was probably an exception, looking after his "battlers" with a generous lump sum contribution, which was great as long as you were one of the battlers able to take advantage of it. The issue now appears to be that the Super pie has grown to such an extent, and which is forecast to double again in the not too distant future, that the 15% concessional tax rate on contributions, and the tax free rate when in retirement phase, is costing the budget a motza - particularly for those lucky enough, or smart with high balances. This goes against the grain normally applying to income, wealth, and tax. Normally, unless you're a Kerry Packer, the more one earns, and in many places in the world, the more one is worth, the higher your tax rate. We would hasten to add that Hedge Clippings is no expert when it comes to Super, as might be deduced from the simple explanation above. However, there are a number of arguments both ways, as well as a number of other flaws in the system which were either not recognised previously, or were possibly kicked down the road for some other government to address. The concessional tax rates applying to Super undoubtedly favour those better off, but they're not the ones to blame. The politics of envy being what they are however, it is much easier to now make the beneficiaries out to be the villains. They simply applied the rules as they stood at the time to their best advantage. There would seem to be other issues with Super at the mid to lower end of the scale as well. While accepting the argument that after 40 plus years working and contributing (even if you had no choice and it was your employer doing so) that your lump sum is "yours", surely the majority of it should be paid as a pension or annuity to ensure you don't rely on the welfare system for the remaining 20 plus years you are expected to live for? Irrespective, the stage has been set for yet another re-work of the overly complicated Super rules come next year's budget. In the meantime, we're just being softened up for it by some well placed PR. Finally we can't let the subject of politicians and Super pass without taking a swipe at their own pension arrangements down in Canberra. From memory, non contributory, and at 15% plus, with various other perks, that's inequality! Don't expect that to change in next May's budget papers! Meanwhile to markets: Cryptocurrencies were hammered further this week following the failure of FTX, a crypto exchange, reinforcing the danger not only of the coins themselves, but also the added counterparty risk in an unregulated market. And finally, US markets had their best day on record when inflation came in ahead of expectations. Or could it have been partly the expectation that Donald Trump's "Red Wave" had made not much more than a ripple? |
|
|
Webinar Recording - New Investment Opportunity & Fund Update | Collins St Asset Management 4D inflation podcast (part 1): Paul Volcker, central banks, and the UK | 4D Infrastructure October 2022 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
4 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |04 November 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 04 November 2022
Last week's Hedge Clippings left the subject of Jim Chalmers and his first budget well alone, probably because at first sight there didn't seem to be much to it. Apart from flagging that inflation was an issue, that energy prices were rising, it left the hard decisions to be made in next year's May budget. It seemed to us that for the time being the government was keen to deliver on some core deliverables while making sure they didn't break the core promises made during the election campaign, and in doing so frighten the punters - aside of course from the promise to deliver lower energy prices. As such, Chalmers kicked the can down the road to the May budget, while at the same time softening us up for the fact that times are going to get tougher, and that inflation was "the number one scourge" while there wasn't much he's going to be able to do about it. The fact is that inflation both here and abroad shows no sign of easing - in fact, the opposite, particularly given the lagging effect of floods - and in spite of the efforts of central banks to try to curb it. As such, this week's rate hike came as little surprise, and the RBA's increase of 0.25% seemed almost insignificant compared with the US Fed's 0.75%, with the same from the Bank of England. One thing seems certain - the outlook for inflation is deteriorating, at the same time as its duration is extending. Inevitably interest rates will keep rising until the inflation trend reverses, and in the interim - however long that may end up being - the potential for a recession, particularly in the US, and the UK - keeps rising in line with the interest rates. If we cast our minds back to just 12 months ago, the RBA wasn't expecting inflation (and interest rates) to be where they are today. Now they're forecasting inflation of 8% this year, before falling back to around the 3% mark in 2024. The problem is that their past forecasting record is not too good, so while we hope they're right, we suspect they'll be found to be wrong. |
|
|
Magellan Infrastructure Strategy Update | Magellan Asset Management The storm of inflation | Kardinia Capital |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
28 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |28 October 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 28 October 2022
When you're in a hole, stop digging! There's an old investment adage that goes along the lines of "let your winners run, and cut your losses early". However most fund managers have a stated mandate or strategy, so it's not quite as easy as that, particularly when there's an underlying shift in economic conditions, market direction, or style. While an individual investor - assuming they have the knowledge or good advice - can adjust more easily, such as by changing sector and stock selections, buying option protection, or moving to cash, (although in truth, many don't - until it's too late) that's easier said than done - without the benefit of hindsight. For many fund managers, while they may have the knowledge or foresight, they are also constrained by the mandate included in the fund's offer documents. They can mitigate risk to a certain degree by retaining or buying defensive stocks at the expense of those with economic or sector headwinds, but unless they're long/short, have the ability to de-risk through options and derivatives, or have a wider mandate, there's less flexibility available. This creates issues for investors in those funds as well. Almost all offer documents will indicate that an investment in the fund should be considered over 5 or 7 years to ride out both performance variations and changes to the underlying economic and market conditions. So do you stick with the funds you have, or adjust allocations to meet the market? The answer to the above dilemma will vary according to individual circumstances, including the level of diversification in an existing portfolio, a view on the ever changing economic outlook, and each individual investor's risk profile. What makes it difficult at the present time is the following broad statistics: Over 12 months to the end of September:
If we wind the clock back 12 months, how times have changed:
So in the space of 12 months, the best performing sector/peer group has fallen from the top to the bottom performer. Talk about rooster to feather duster! Statistics of course can prove or disprove anything, depending on what you want other people to believe. Within each of the Peer Groups the individual fund's performances also vary dramatically. What however is the lesson? Obviously individual fund selection matters, as can asset allocation, and in the above instance, peer group selection. But given those variations and fluctuations, plus a changing global economy, the one over-riding message is diversification. With appropriate diversification, and an understanding of one's risk tolerance, a portfolio should be able to deliver through the cycle. Fund Monitors' Peer Group Comparison and Analysis is available here. New Funds on FundMonitors.com Investment Perspectives: A closer look at US housing | Quay Global Investors 10k Words - October Edition | Equitable Investors China's deflating property market threatens wider economic trouble | Magellan Asset Management |
|
|
September 2022 Performance News Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
21 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |21 October 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 21 October 2022 It wasn't so long ago that most Australians were somewhat embarrassed - whatever their political affiliations - by the turnover of residents of The Lodge. It was a tumultuous period, following 11 years of political stability under John Howard. Rudd yo-yo'd with Gillard before the Liberals got into the act with Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, and then Scomo taking the keys. Oh! to have the government's removalist contract during those heady years! On the face of it, those times seem well past under Albo (PM number 7 since Kevin '07 if you count him twice) introduced his seemingly steady hand. Not to be outdone, it seems the UK is intent on going down the same track. Since Labour's Tony Blair resigned in 2007 after 10 years as PM (interestingly almost shadowing John Howard's tenure, albeit on the opposite side of politics, although both supported the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq) Great Britain has had 5 PM's, and within a week that will rise to 6. Who knows, it may even herald the return of Boris Johnson to mirror the Gillard - Rudd years? However much we might have felt things were a little crazy in Canberra in those days, surely nothing comes close to the chaos that seems to have enveloped Westminister over the past six months or so. One sort of knew that life under Boris would be a roller coaster - in many ways that's what he promised - even if his eventual demise was akin to something out of Alice in Wonderland and the Mad Hatter's tea party, except Boris always made a show of being hatless, and the tea party was replaced by champagne in the garden at Number 10. The whole selection process for his successor seemed equally bizarre, as two candidates from the same party went hammer and tongs at each other in a series of televised debates, with the loser among their peers getting the nod from the conservative party faithful. The final outcome (with the benefit of hindsight of course) was the elevation of Liz Truss, formerly anti-monarchy, as PM, which seemed a triumph of ambition over ability, or as King Charles lll was heard to mutter; 'Back again? Dear oh dear!'. No wonder! All this might be amusing (or at least "bemusing") were it not so serious. Once looked up to (by some at least) as the centre of democracy, and the cornerstone of the World's economy, the UK is now in political and economic disarray at the very time stability in both is required. One can only hope that given the importance of the task, the next incumbents of Numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street last a little longer, and restore some sense of order. Back home, the Albanese government appears to have restored stability to Australia in an unstable world. Next week the new Treasurer brings down his first budget, with the main thrust well telegraphed via the media either to get feedback (abandon legislated Stage lll tax cuts at your peril) or to soften us up for reality (live within your means, and accept inflation, and higher interest rates). Meanwhile, the week after next the RBA meets on Cup Day, November 1st, with the US FOMC meeting on November 1st & 2nd. Both are likely to result in a rate rise, although the RBA's might only be 0.25%, while the FOMC is poised for a 93% probability of another 0.75% hike according to CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. With reports of mortgage stress and refinancing increasing, and impending price rises as a result of the widespread floods, one would expect that a rise of 0.25% from the RBA will be sufficient. The Inflation Reduction Act will drive US' efforts towards net-zero | 4D Infrastructure 'Small Talk' - Mood Swings | Equitable Investors |
|
|
September 2022 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
14 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |14 October 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 14 October 2022 We need to take the medicine, and hopefully it won't kill us. You don't need Hedge Clippings to dampen your mood on a Friday afternoon (at the end of another volatile and soggy week) by telling you the world is in a precarious position. Sadly, it's a fact: We need to take the medicine, like it or not. Unfortunately, it's not a pleasant medicine, or even a single dose, as the problems we're facing are multiple, and, by and large, of our own making. Of course, by "our" we're mainly meaning politicians and central banks, but not entirely. Collectively, the broader population selects politicians, particularly in democracies, and those politicians, and the bureaucrats and central bankers, take us in a chosen direction. We're probably veering off track there, but the reality is that for the past decade or so investors, homeowners and businesses have been happy to accept the easy monetary conditions, ever lower interest rates, and lower (or negative) inflation, which in turn saw asset prices - particularly equities and property - soar to unrealistic levels. As long as the majority were beneficiaries, it was a case of "happy days" or possibly more correctly, "happy daze". Deep down, if we stopped to think about it long enough, or hard enough, we knew there'd be a day of reckoning. Some older and wiser heads - think Warren Buffet and his offsider Charlie Munger - have long warned about this reckoning, but "hey, they're almost 100, so what would they know?" With thanks to L1 Capital's latest quarterly report, listen or watch The Richter Scales' 2007 parody "Here Comes Another Bubble". History repeating itself! It is no secret that the main disease is inflation, and the medicine is higher interest rates. Overnight US inflationary figures were worse than expected, presumably leading to a further 0.75% rate rise at the next Fed meeting. Hey presto, US markets turned around and ended over 2% higher on the day, and the ASX following suit. Go figure? However, with the S&P500 down over 25% YTD (although less than half of that for the ASX200's YTD total return) there are inevitably investors itching to catch the bottom of the market, particularly for oversold quality stocks, while others wonder if it is too late to sell. Inflation may be the current issue, and higher rates are the medicine, but that will/may (delete which ever option you think least likely) lead to a looming recession, and not just in the US and Europe. The IMF has downgraded global growth from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022, and further to 2.7% in 2023, and central bankers are adamant they'll do whatever it takes to tame inflation. Back to Charlie Munger, who claims central banks have for years been ignoring the problem by persevering with easy money for far too long, rather than confronting the problem. As anyone would tell you, ignoring a problem doesn't make it go away. Worse still, the problem normally worsens, or to come back to our medical analogy, the stronger and more unpleasant the medicine is required to cure the disease. Of course we're referring to financial markets and the world economy, but exactly the same principle applies in politics: Take Vladimir Putin, who encouraged by his friendship with Donald Trump, and by Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas, was allowed to get away with murder (literally) until the world is faced with a dilemma: Will he, or won't he do the unthinkable? Rewarding bad behaviour doesn't work. New Funds on FundMonitors.com The energy crisis is likely to last years | Magellan Asset Management Which companies are posting strong and growing results? | Insync Fund Managers |
|
|
September 2022 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
7 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |07 October 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 07 October 2022 For the past 60 years Bob Dylan, arguably the greatest musical influence of our time, has delivered classical and songs, and with memorable lines. None more so than one from one of his earlier works, Subterranean Homesick Blues, which included the line "You don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows." Admittedly, much, if not all, of the rest of the song's meaning, remains a mystery to most, us included, but (with apologies for the YouTube ad) the video clip was also an early classic. The RBA's media release following their monthly meeting is a master of understatement, but often it is the last sentence which tells which way the wind is really blowing. In March 2020 the RBA dropped its cash rate target to an unprecedented 0.25% with the following comment: "The Board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2-3 per cent target band." It's worth noting that back then the objective was to create some inflation... In November of the same year, the RBA eased further to an even more unprecedented rate of 0.10% with the comment: "Given the outlook, the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years... and is prepared to do more if necessary." Oops! Where was the weatherman that time? To be fair to the accelerator/brake analogy, history shows that the cash rate stuck at 1.5% from August 2016 to May 2019, before it declined again through to November 2020 to bottom, and stay at 0.10%. That was until May this year, when it rose by 0.25%, followed by four consecutive increases of 0.5%, and then this week's increase of 0.25%, taking the cash rate to 2.6%. Tuesday's RBA media release finished with this: "The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target, and will do what is necessary to achieve that." It goes without saying that the board's intention is to now reduce inflation to 2-3%, which they expect to achieve (just) in 2024. Part of where we're going with this is not to say the RBA's job is easy, but that the resultant effect of easing or tightening are pretty inevitable (if not immediate) on the economy, and particularly housing prices. To repeat or borrow Dylan's words, when it comes to property prices, "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows". It stands to reason - actually supply and demand - that a prolonged period of easy money, especially with little or low unemployment - will result in an increase in property prices. Equally, the lower the interest rate, and the longer it lasts for - or in the RBA's case their November 2020 expectation for "at least three years" - the stronger will be the increase. While money was easy and housing prices were rocketing, the RBA and media were concerned about housing affordability. Now, with interest rates and repayments rising, and property prices falling, there are dire warnings of mortgage stress and the potential for foreclosure. So which way is the wind blowing at the moment? This week's rise of only 0.25% against the expectations of 0.50%, although unlikely to be the last in this cycle, did signal a significant shift in the RBA's thinking that this time the peak cash rate should be no more than 3.25%. That of course assumes that inflation declines. And sometimes that weatherman is not so predictable. Europe Trip Insights | 4D Infrastructure Why on earth would Experiences thrive with all the gloom around today? | Insync Fund Managers McDonalds Story | Magellan Asset Management |
|
|
September 2022Â Performance News |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday  |
30 Sep 2022 - Hedge Clippings |30 September 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 30 September 2022 Amid all the chaos facing the world at present, ranging from nearly three years of COVID, to the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent threat of nuclear war, surely the most bizarre is the economic and political chaos now facing the United Kingdom. At first glance, it might seem this has been an instant reaction to a knee-jerk budget from a newly appointed PM, Liz Truss, and her equally new and inexperienced treasurer, Kwasi Kwarteng. Together, and after months of a drawn-out and damaging internal selection process, they announced a mini-budget and tax cuts which prompted an intervention from the Bank of England to prevent a run on pension funds, and a slump in the value of sterling which makes the under pressure Aussie dollar look strong. Truss didn't improve things in a series of disastrous radio interviews on the BBC by trying to blame Putin for her and Kwarteng's own goal, which also drew a warning from the IMF which issued a statement saying "we do not recommend large and untargeted fiscal packages" at a time of high inflation, and suggesting the UK government re-evaluate its plans. Ratings agency Moody's also got in on the act, saying that the unfunded tax cuts were credit negative, and likely to weigh on growth. Truss is between a rock and a hard place: Should she back down and admit she's made a serious boo-boo within weeks of being appointed, or continue to brazen it out, and no doubt in due course lose the next election? In reality, this shambles can all be traced back to the chaos created by her predecessor, Boris Johnson. However, somehow he seemed to have the brass, or b---s to be able to bluff his way through countless crises, until finally "Pinchergate" and "Partygate" finally ended his act. In the case of Truss, there's probably never been a better example of the "Peter Principal" (so named after the 1969 book of the same name written by Laurence J. Peter) which observes that people in a hierarchy tend to rise to a level of respective incompetence. Depending on one's point of view that might also have applied to Boris. Thankfully, although possibly also depending on one's political point of view, it seems that Albo, our new Prime Minister, has hit the ground running, and in spite of troubling global and economic times has yet to put a foot wrong. Of course, it is early days, and long may it last, but it seems a long apprenticeship, both in government and opposition, and a lifelong career in politics, has benefitted Australia and its 31st Prime Minister. Changing tack, and back where we belong to financial services: The latest figures from ASIC covering financial advisor numbers in Australia, compiled by Wealth Data and reported in the AFR, show that AMP's adviser workforce has dropped below 1,000 - a 60% decline since January 2019, and a far cry from the 3,329 advisers it had on its books in 2014. AMP hasn't been the only institution at the "big end" of town to lose advisors, or in the case of the big four banks, leave the business. Over 10,000 advisors have left the sector since the Hayne Royal Commission shone an unwelcome spotlight into some dark corners of certain practices. Many advisers have left the larger dealer groups to set up on their own or in smaller "boutiques" finding that they had greater flexibility to provide high levels of client advice - particularly at the higher end - in spite of the compliance support (or constraints) previously provided by head office. The risk of course is that with lower adviser numbers, but still with a large number of people requiring financial advice, some of the latter are going to miss out. Compliance and regulation in the industry are necessary, albeit often tedious. However, the Treasury's Quality of Advice Review is reported to be considering watering down the requirements for financial advice - and general advice in particular - enabling so-called "finfluencers" to flourish. This would appear to us to be throwing the baby out with the bathwater, but maybe that's the wrong metaphor to use. Let's just say that social media is responsible for enough damage as it is. News & Insights Investment Perspectives: Why rising interest rates aren't working (yet) | Quay Global Investors 10k Words | Equitable Investors Times like these - investing in sustainable growth companies makes sense | Insync Fund Managers |
|
|
August 2022 Performance News Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
23 Sep 2022 - Hedge Clippings |23 September 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 23 September 2022 Last Friday RBA Governor Philip Lowe appeared before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in part to report, and in part to rebuff suggestions from some quarters that he should resign on account of misjudging the outlook for inflation, and thus his 2021 expectations for interest rates not to rise before 2024. As he pointed out in his opening statement, much has changed since he last fronted the Committee in February, just seven months ago:
Since his 2021 statement rates have risen five times. Lowe could have used the old, supposed quote from various people, including John Maynard Keynes and Winston Churchill and others, to the effect that "when the information changes, he changes his conclusions". This week he could also use the fact that Australia is just one of 90 countries to have increased interest rates this year as they fight the "scourge" of inflation - even if their economies succumb to a recession in the process. To quote from his prepared statement of last week:
This week the US Fed increased rates by 0.75%. In the UK the Bank of England, facing inflation of 10%, upped their rates by 0.50%, the 6th increase this year, while Norway, Sweden (+1.0%), Switzerland (+0.75% and now in positive territory for the first time in eight years), plus South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, Mongolia, Taiwan, and the Philippines, all increased rates. Going against the trend, Turkey dropped theirs by 1%, but that was from 13 to 12% in spite of inflation running at its highest for 24 years, and, not surprisingly, in the face of "a loss of momentum in economic activity." Japan's central bank also stood out by not increasing rates, but intervening in markets to support the tumbling Yen. Also swimming against the tide were China and Russia, both of which have their own specific economic and other issues to deal with, and which are also impacting the rest of the world. China's woes include an ongoing slowdown resulting from COVID restrictions, even as it seems the rest of the world have or are emerging from the worst effects of the pandemic which is generally accepted by all except the Chinese government to have originated in Wuhan, and which is approaching a three year anniversary. According to Noel Quinn, the CEO of HSBC Holdings Plc., the correction to China's commercial real estate market was "massive, faster and more decisive than expected", and may have at least another two years to run. Also supporting Lowe's explanation of changing conclusions with the change in available information would surely be Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which caught politicians across the western world, and Europe's economy, and energy supplies in particular, off guard. Just to add to the uncertainty, Putin upped the ante this week when facing defeat at the hands of a supposedly weaker, but fully committed opponent, losing face by calling up 300,000 reservists, and threatening the use of nuclear weapons, which would presumably escalate the war, rather than end it. Australia's economy may or may not escape a recession, but along with the rest of the world's central bankers, Philip Lowe is clear about his priority: The longer term threat from inflation is greater than the shorter term risk of a recession. Which takes us back to Paul Keating's quote of the "recession we had to have". News & Insights The Long and The Short: The 8 minutes that really mattered | Kardinia Capital Reporting season better than many feared | Glenmore Asset Management Outlook Snapshot | Cyan Investment Management |
|
|
August 2022 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
In November 1990 then treasurer Paul Keating famously opened a press conference by confirming Australia was in "a recession that we had to have."
16 Sep 2022 - Hedge Clippings |16 September 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 16 September 2022 In this edition: Inflation, Interest rates, and Recession News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com The Investment Case for Private Credit | Altor Capital Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund Higher US interest rates test the world | Magellan Asset Management |
|
|
August 2022 Performance News Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
9 Sep 2022 - Hedge Clippings |09 September 2022
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 09 September 2022 This week Dr. Philip Lowe copped a fair amount of flak following the RBA's fully anticipated decision to raise rates by a further 0.50% taking the rate to 2.35%. He also signalled further upward movements by stating he was "committed to doing what is necessary" to knock inflation on the head. That's now five rate rises in five months. There's likely to be a further 2 or 3 increases at least, so even if they're not all 0.5%, or don't come at monthly intervals, the official cash rate is likely to be over 3% by early 2023, if not by Christmas this year. Therein lies the source of the flak: It wasn't so long ago that his "advice" was that rates wouldn't start rising until 2024. It is probably fair to say it will be a while before Lowe looks that far over the horizon again, as the inevitable political opportunists - whinger in chief of everything, Greens leader Adam Bandt leading the charge - called for his resignation. The problem is (or was) that global central banks also underestimated the threat of inflation because much of the cause behind it wasn't there. When Dr Lowe made his "steady as she goes until 2024" prediction, Putin hadn't indicated he was going to invade Ukraine and create an energy crisis. China hadn't gone into lockdown and created a supply chain crisis. Wages hadn't spiked upwards (and still haven't) to the same degree as inflation. So Australia is in the same boat as the US, as well as the UK, or Europe, where interest rates were increased by 0.75% overnight, once again with the message that taming inflation (where it is significantly higher than in Australia) is a greater priority than the risk of a recession. It is well understood that monetary policy and raising or lowering interest rates is a blunt instrument - and the only one - that the RBA has to counter the multiple inputs that create inflation, and affect the economy. As a result, it is not surprising that the RBA governor rejected calls for his resignation, and pointed to both the difficulties of forecasting in the time of Covid, the strength of the economy, and full employment. That won't stop Adam Bandt whinging, but following the Queen's death overnight he's wasted no time in changing his angle of attack to target the monarchy. There'll be plenty of time for that debate in due course, but a little bit of respect might have been the order of the day. Changing tack - Hedge Clippings used to feature a weekly section under the title of "Now For Something Completely Different" to finish the week on a positive note. Given there is now so much content on both the internet and social media, we have let that slide, but every so often an item comes along which we find either amusing or in this case uplifting. This video of a street singer performing outside London's Covent Garden fits the bill, when he's joined by an actual stage star of Phantom of the Opera, Dutch Soprano Celinde Schoenmaker, for an impromptu duet. Enjoy! News & Insights Managers Insights | Collins St Asset Management The cost of war | 4D Infrastructure Are the businesses enjoying stock price rises today also the winners of tomorrow? | Insync Fund Managers |
|
|
August 2022 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
