NEWS
8 Apr 2013 - Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund
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Manager Comments | The manager notes that stock markets took a breather in March as investors reassessed the outlook after strong returns for several months. European sovereign risks flared again as did concerns about policy tightening in China. The resulting decline in the resources sector pulled the Australian market lower with the ASX 200 finishing 2.7% lower despite global markets posting small gains (MSCI +1.9%). Fund performance was slightly positive due to gains from our shorts in the Materials sector, particularly profit downgrades in the Chemical sector. This was somewhat offset by losses in our short book in Consumer Discretionary. The fund was active in the Energy, Resources and Transport sector during the month. Despite positive global monetary policy settings there has recently been a large divergence in performance between the Resources sector (-11% ytd) and the rest of the market (+5% ytd) and investors will need to consider this when forming views on the growth outlook. The domestic economy has stabilised and the prospect of a majority government by year-end may provide confidence to the business sector. The domestic earnings picture is still sluggish though and ultimately needs to improve for stocks to push higher. |
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7 Apr 2013 - Meet the Manager - InSync - now closed
Last year we hosted a series of lunch presentations entitled "Understanding Hedge Funds" which provided investors with a more balanced view on the sector than is sometimes portrayed in the media. Following feedback from a number of our guests we also organised briefings and presentations for a small group of investors to "meet the manager" and hear from individual fund managers in person.
Our next "Meet the Manager" briefing is with Monik Kotecha from Insync Funds Management on Wednesday 10 April 2013.
Monik's fund, the Insync Global Titans Fund, invests in a concentrated portfolio of large cap global stocks with a focus on those companies that can consistently grow dividends and earn high returns on invested capital. The latest copy of our Research Review of the Fund is here.
Monik will share his views of the market and the opportunities and risks which lie ahead. Having just returned from the UK and meeting many leading multinational companies he will also be able to provide an update on the global trends and observations they provided.
If you are interested in attending this Meet the Manager briefing, please reply by email and we will send you confirmation of your registration and inform you of the Sydney city venue.
Wednesday 10 April 2013 at midday
Sydney city venue to be advised
RSVP by Thursday 4 April 2013

5 Apr 2013 - Hedge Clippings
Superannuation Update
Treasurer Swan and Superannuation Minister Shorten must have been well aware of the potential electoral backlash from major changes to superannuation judging by their announcement today, a month out from the budget. Although the changes will affect those on the top tax bracket, they are not nearly as ferocious as many, yours truly included, were expecting.
Few comments seen so far have been negative. A 15% tax rate on retirement incomes over $100,000 remains attractive, even if not as generous as zero % on everything. Generally speaking the changes seem to pass the "fair and reasonable" test, although they won't do much to fill Swan's budget problems, nor the government's electoral chances if it comes to that. Maybe it was the realisation that if they tinkered too much with everyone else's retirement incomes it might put too much focus on their own overly generous pension arrangements.
And so back to markets and fund performance. March was only the second negative month for the ASX200 since December 2011, ending a significant rally since last July of almost 25% during which risk averse absolute return funds underperformed, and the more concentrated long biased funds made up some of the ground lost in the previous three or four years. Early indications from funds that have reported March results indicate they have performed well, with positive returns confirming their value in negative markets.
Meanwhile the Japanese market continues to rally, now at a four and a half year high and 57% above the low hit in late July, while the Yen continues to weaken, as intended by their version of QE1, 2 and 3. Other Asian economies and markets may not be so happy about that, but may have to grin and bear it.
On that happy note, I wish you a happy, healthy and carefree week end.
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
Meet the Manager
Due to an overwhelming response, our Wednesday 10 April Meet the Manager briefing with Insync Fund Managers is fully booked. We will be holding a second briefing for Insync and will release our next Fund Manager lunch briefing soon. Stay tuned for updates.
5 Apr 2013 - K2 Select International Absolute Return Fund
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Manager Comments | Regional performance in global equities was relatively mixed, with positive returns in the US and Japan offset by falls in S. Korea, China and Hong Kong. In the US data continues to be consistent with a moderate economic recovery. In stark contrast, Europe remains in its own world of pain. Inconclusive Italian elections and a banking “bail-in” in Cyprus are uncomfortable reminders of a crisis which is far from over. It is no surprise that March PMI’s for the Eurozone fell further and reflect ongoing recessionary conditions in the region. While the data in China remains broadly consistent with moderate economic recovery, the market focus was firmly on the reform agenda of the new administration. There seems to be an increasing acceptance by key policymakers of a further moderation in medium term growth while urgently needed reforms in the financial system are implemented. The fund chose to actively reduce exposure to equity markets during the month of March to just below 90% for the first time since September the 6th 2012. While not calling for an imminent correction the manager is conscious that markets have moved a long way in a short period, and having captured most of that upside felt it was prudent to lower exposure. Regionally performance during the month was broad based for the fund, with the main negative coming from the strengthening AUD where the fund is currently only 50% hedged. A correction in the short term certainly can’t be discounted, especially as investors approach the traditional “sell in May” seasonal weakness. The risks are well known, high sovereign debt levels lead to increasingly difficult fiscal decisions ahead for most developed nations, where welfare budgets in particular are running at unsustainable levels. Nevertheless in spite of these risks, it is important to keep focused on the medium term fundamentals for equities, which remain compelling in the manager's opinion. |
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4 Apr 2013 - Allard Investment Fund
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Manager Comments | The Fund's longer term record shows an above benchmark return over 3, 5 and 7 years with volatility 70% of the Index benchmark (MSCI Asia-Pacific ex Japan in $A). The Fund's cash holdings have acted to improve performance in draw-downs and dampen volatility. The portfolio is well diversified with 27.7% of holdings in China/HK and 11.8% in Singapore. Cash is currently at 34.4% and the Australian exposure is 2.2%. Sector exposure is also well diversified with large exposures to financials, conglomerates and utilities. The top 5 holdings are 35.2% of the portfolio. |
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3 Apr 2013 - Perpetual Wholesale SHARE-PLUS Long-Short Fund
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Fund Overview | Perpetual researches companies of all sizes using consistent share selection criteria. Perpetual's priority is to select those companies that represent the best investment quality and are appropriately priced. In determining investment quality, investments are carefully selected on the basis of four key investment criteria: -conservative debt levels -sound management -quality business and -in the case of industrial shares, recurring earnings In addition, Perpetual aims to take short positions in Australian shares that it believes will fall in value. The Short positions are determined based on each stock's expected returns and the investment constraints (designed to reduce the risks associated with taking short positions). Derivatives may also be used in managing the fund. The Fund's investment universe allows it to invest from time to time directly or indirectly in stocks listed on sharemarket exchanges outside Australia. To help manage the risk profile of the Fund relative to the Australian stockmarket, exposure to stocks listed outside of Australia is limited to 20% and is generally hedged to the Australian dollar to the extent reasonably practical. |
Manager Comments | The Australian equity market, as measured by the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, rose by 5.3% during February. Equity markets continued their strong start to the year, with most regional bourses now firmly in bull market territory. Whilst some markets faltered late in the month due to concerns over US monetary and fiscal policy and an inconclusive Italian election, the Australian market pushed on to new 4 year highs. The local market was buoyed by an earnings season which, on the balance, met or beat market expectations. As a whole, industrial stocks (+6.9%) outperformed resource stocks (+0.4%), while large cap stocks (+4.9%) outperformed small cap stocks (+0.9%). In major company news, a predominantly positive reporting season dominated the headlines. The outlook in some sectors remains challenging,but those companies that were able to offer upbeat guidance were strongly rewarded by the market. Cost reductions remained a familiar theme, as investors continue to wait for signs of meaningful top line revenue growth. The Fund’s largest overweight positions include general insurer Insurance Australia Group, rail freight operator Aurizon and casino operator Crown. Insurance Australia Group is a market leader and operates in a duopoly in personal lines. Aurizon operates three main businesses including coal, freight, and network services primarily involved in the transportation of coal from mine to port. The Fund is underweight ANZ and Commonwealth Bank. The largest short positions in the Fund at the end of the month were Worley Parsons and CFS Retail Trust. The Fund is currently positioned 120.0% long (including cash) and 20.0% short. Whilst the outlook is improving, global markets remain hampered by a level of political and economic uncertainty. The Australian market is not immune from these forces; however, during periods of uncertainty and volatility, patient investors are often presented with the opportunity to acquire very high quality companies at attractive valuations. The portfolio manager believes there are a number of such opportunities at present, although these opportunities are becoming fewer. Further, recent interest rate cuts have also increased the relative attractiveness of sound, fully franked dividend streams offered by quality equities in comparison to declining term deposit rates. |
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2 Apr 2013 - Whitehaven SPC Correlation Fund
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Manager Comments | February saw continuing strength in risk assets with ongoing global expansive monetary policy , a perception Japanese equities have bottomed and possible global equity short covering as debate intensifies on whether the great rotation from bonds to equities has started. The fund's strategies are by design defensive. In other words the fund returns are best when markets are volatile. This normally occurs when equity markets are falling. This relationship with volatility is demonstrated by the fund's high correlation with the VIX volatility index (59%). Over 2013 volatility has fallen and is approaching lows not seen since before the GFC in 2007. This is the dominant explanatory factor as to why the fund returns are more muted this year compared to its previous track record. However, it’s worth noting that the fund’s trading style has still generated positive returns while other defensive assets have fallen substantially in 2013. |
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28 Mar 2013 - Hedge Clippings
Is Self Managed Super at risk of its own success?
With the countdown to the Federal budget (and by all accounts likely to be Wayne Swan's last, at least for a while) replacing the recent leadership shambles as the focus of attention for Canberra watchers, there's a strong feeling that Australia's much vaunted superannuation system is in the current treasurer's sights.
Originally introduced twenty years ago in 1992 by Labor's then Prime Minister Paul Keating as a 3% levy on employers, superannuation was intended to ensure that Australian's future retirement incomes were properly funded, and retirees were not, or at least less, dependent on a government pension. Since then the levy has risen to 9%, is scheduled to rise to 12%, and according to Keating should be 15%.
In most respects "Super" been a phenomenal success, as the funds management industry (which is now estimated to manage around $1.4 trillion of Super) will no doubt attest. So successful that successive treasurers haven't been able to keep their hands out of the cookie jar, although to be fair Peter Costello's lump sum contribution concessions greatly added to it. Which brings us to the looming budget, and the strong potential for more changes to the regulations in an attempt to increase the take on Super's concessional tax rates.
The Treasurer will of course want to keep the faith with his party's few remaining faithful and target the top end of the Super chain. This will put the Self Managed Super Fund sector firmly in his sights. SMSF now accounts for an estimated 35% of the total Superannuation pool with approaching 500,000 individual funds. This is likely to grow as the compounding effect of 20 years of contributions take effect.
Originally the administrative and compliance cost of operating a SMSF made it prohibitive for all but those with the largest balances to manage their own retirement nest egg. The combination of technology and scale has reduced this barrier, which coupled with rising contributions and balances will only increase the SMSF sector further.
What's this got to do with absolute return funds? According to Wikipedia, Australians now have more money invested in managed funds per capita than any other economy. While absolute return and alternative funds are not supported in Australia by institutions and pension funds to the same extent as they are overseas, SMSF investors seem to understand the benefits of active and discretionary management of their savings.
So come early May when Mr. Swan rises to announce his final budget with an expected attack on the industry's tax arrangements, SMSF beneficiaries are likely to be hardest hit. What started as a great idea for reducing the government's obligation to provide an aging population their pensions will have turned the full circle to be a source of filling the expanding hole of the budget deficit.
On that happy note, I wish you a happy, healthy and carefree long week end.
And for something completely different - "Ou est le papier?"
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
28 Mar 2013 - SGH ICE February Performance Report
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Fund Overview | The investment manager believes that key intangible assets (such as Brands, Patents, Licenses, Logistical capability,a Captive client base) are the most difficult to replicate and that these key assets enable companies to entrench their products/services in the marketplace. |
Manager Comments | The December reporting season saw a continuation of the trend of SGH ICE franchise companies reporting more certain growth. The portfolio reported 12% pa median earnings growth as opposed to the overall market median of -9%. The fund's February return was below relevant benchmarks as most of the companies had recorded strong price gains leading into the reporting season.Top 5 contributors over the month were Seek, REA Group, Seven, Acrux and Amcom. Aurizon's results disappointed leading to a reduced weighting in the portfolio. Amongst others the fund also reduced it's holding in Seek and REA despite strong results as the share prices had moved up reducing future IRR potential |
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27 Mar 2013 - K2 Asian Fund
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Manager Comments | The K2 Asia Absolute Return Fund returned 2.11% for the month of February. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex. Japan (AUD) returned 2.82% (+1.49% in local currency). February delivered another solid return led by The Philippines (+7.8%), Indonesia(+7.7%) and Australia (+5.2%). Eroding the quality of the region’s move was the performance of the Hong-listed China H-Shares which, at their low fell 8.5%, before partially recovering to end down 5.7%. After a near 35% run over the previous 5 months, sellers focused on China’s re-acceleration and the fear of policy tightening measures owing to high credit growth and a strong property market. Over February the Fund’s net exposure ranged between 95-100%. Despite solid equity market returns over the past six months, expectations of continued fund inflows into global equity markets and the region in particular, coupled with still modest valuations and progressive upgrades to earnings forecasts all continue to underpin the Fund's rationale for a high exposure. Net inflows into emerging market equity funds have been some of the strongest in almost a decade and have been well spread across a number of markets. The Fund will continue to run high exposure while positive momentum prevails in economic growth and earnings and while valuations sit at healthy discounts to long term averages, all elements which are compelling underweight investors to progressively redirect capital into Asia, notably China. With regards to China the Fund is holding a high weighting so long as the upward momentum in earnings forecasts is supported by favorable economic momentum. Concern over possible policy tightening has some credence given the high levels of new credit finding its way into the economy and given the propensity of excessive new credit to find its way into speculative activities. This is the key domestic issue to monitor. The hedge against the Fund’s USD-linked exposure remains in place. While the hedge neutralizes currency movements in those markets in which it is employed, in February the overall strength in the currencies the fund invests in resulted in a net positive contribution from currency. |
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