NEWS
10 Feb 2023 - Hedge Clippings |10 February 2023
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 10 February 2023 As expected, on Tuesday the RBA did what everyone expected, and what they had to, raising rates by 0.25% in the sharpest and fastest series of increases in recent (and probably longer) memory. Even though expected by 100% of market economists, investors didn't take too kindly to it, with the ASX falling almost half a percent on the day, and after a brief rally on Wednesday, continuing to fall since. It wasn't what the RBA did that upset the market, but what RBA Governor Philip Lowe said - particularly, as we always point out - in the last paragraph (and in this case the last sentence) or so of their statement: "The board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve this." That's RBA speak for "expect more rates rises to come," so unless things on the inflation front change direction quickly, 3.85% seems a forgone conclusion, possibly by May or June, and with every chance of that tripping the 4% mark in the second half of the year. Amid all the forecasts of widespread mortgage stress and damage to household budgets, the hard and nasty truth is that's what the RBA is aiming at - or at least to force consumers to rein in spending - to try to quell inflation. Unfortunately, it's not a level playing field in mortgage land, and to quote Bill Gates, "Life's not fair. Get used to it". Of course, Bill can afford to say that, but the RBA has a problem with the un-level field when using mortgage rates - as only one third of households have a mortgage - to tame inflation. The other two thirds are less, or not impacted, so they're probably still spending, even if their morning flat white is now costing them over $4 a pop. But there's more to the un-level field: Amongst the one third of households with mortgages, there are those who are more stressed than others - either by virtue of being on lower incomes, having only recently taken out a mortgage thanks to the RBA's "no rate rise until 2024" prediction, those about to come off a low fixed rate onto a higher variable one, or those with smaller savings to dip into to buffer to rise. Assuming (this is a guess) 20% of all mortgages are in the above categories, that's less than 7% of the overall population. At 50%, it rises to just over 15% of the total. This may sound as if we're being callous or uncaring. Far from it. The point is that the RBA needs to change the spending habits of the majority, not just the minority, a point they acknowledge (along with the lagging effect of higher rates) in the penultimate paragraph of their February Statement on Monetary Policy. So while they may be mindful of the uneven pain they're causing on the un-level playing field of life, "The Board's priority is to return inflation to target." And that's not going to happen at least until Santa's been around again (if we have a recession) or possibly after he's been back twice (if there's a soft landing). So, as Bill said, "get used to it". Over to markets and fund performance: As everyone knows, last year's outbreak of inflation was a shock to everyone, including the RBA, as was Ukraine, (except to Putin). The market tanked for the first nine months of the year and has since recovered strongly, such that the 12 month performance of the ASX200 Total Return to the end of January was +12.21%, significantly better than the S&P500 equivalent of -8.22% for an out-performance of over 20%. AFM's Peer Group Comparison tables show a similar, although more variable pattern, such that over both three and six months to the end of January, ALL Peer Groups, with one exception (Alternatives, which includes Crypto funds) were in positive territory. The top performing Peer Group over 12 months was the Equity Long Large Cap group, which returned just over 8% on average, with 25% of those out-performing the ASX200 TR and the top performer, the Lazard Select Australian Fund returning 32%. |
|
News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Cycle is not a dirty word | Airlie Funds Management January 2023 Performance News 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Australian Equities Fund L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
3 Feb 2023 - Hedge Clippings |03 February 2023
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 03 February 2023 This week Treasurer Jim Chalmers penned a 6,000 word essay in The Monthly entitled "Capitalism after the crises" in which he argued for "the place of values and optimism in how we rethink capitalism," which as you can imagine drew a variety of responses. Steven Hamilton in the Sydney Morning Herald described it (among other things) as "an incoherent assortment of kumbaya capitalist thought bubbles - the kinds of ideas you might expect from a bunch of virtue-signalling CEOs attending a wellness retreat." We're not quite sure who should be more offended, the Treasurer, or the CEO's, although we're also not sure if that's Steven's real life experience, or what he imagines such a group would conjure up if they made it to a wellness retreat. Graeme Samuel however, writing in the AFR, describes the essay as "deeply insightful" and urged anyone interested "to read the essay carefully and with an open mind" and concluded his opinion piece with "Chalmers has outlined an evolution of capitalism that is both necessary and inevitable." For convenience, and if you have both the interest (and the time) here's a link to the essay so you can judge for yourself. Meanwhile, Charlotte Mortlock on SkyNews admired Chalmers' commitment but suggested the essay was far too long, proposing that a couple of hundred words would have done the trick. (Hopefully, someone gives ex H.R.H. Harry the same advice when he sits down with his therapist (sorry, ghostwriter) to pen his sequel to Spare. Come to think of it, maybe someone should have done that before he wrote Spare?) Hedge Clippings did have a crack at reading the article, but time didn't permit a full analysis, and space doesn't permit a summary of it here. We did try asking ChatGPT for a 500-1000 word summary (we thought a couple of hundred was a little ambitious) but it seems they're on Charlotte's side, as we received the following response:
That suggests to us that Chalmers, who admitted to writing the essay over his Christmas break, could have cut out some of the waffle, but old habits die hard for politicians, just like the rest of us. Our view is that while capitalism is not perfect, neither is socialism, or communism - or as Churchill once famously said, "democracy" (with which capitalism co-exists) "is the worst form of government - except for all the others that have been tried." One of the keys is that capitalism works in a democratic system, and as such, when individual values change, governments change, and so do corporate values. Each constantly evolve. The capitalism of today, much like the social and political values of today, are different than they were before each of the economic crises that Chalmers writes about. Greed, for instance (while it will always exist) is not good - or at least not exalted as such. Corporations, more than ever before, are subject to shareholder and community values, and where, when (and sometimes when not) necessary. |
|
News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Equities 2023 - What's the bigger risk? | Insync Fund Managers Global Matters: 2023 outlook | 4D Infrastructure December 2022 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
27 Jan 2023 - Hedge Clippings |27 January 2023
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 27 January 2023 In case you're still basking on the beach (or wherever) in blissful ignorance, Australia's December quarter inflation figure came in higher than expectations at 7.8%. Of course, if you ARE still away, you may also not be spending your Friday afternoon reading Hedge Clippings, but either way, it seems like RBA Governor Philip Lowe's New Year is going to start off being as difficult as his old one, although he'll no doubt be considerably more careful with his longer term forecasts than last year. The bottom line is that we suspect inflation is likely to stay stronger for longer, disappointing the optimists who were expecting it to peak early in the new year under the influence of last year's sharp rate rises. Thus, given the RBA's, and their offshore colleagues' previous perilous prognostications (try saying that quickly after a glass or three of Friday's lunchtime vino) that inflation can't and must not be allowed to become entrenched, there's going to be more pain in the form of rate rises, most likely when the RBA board gets together for the first time next Tuesday week. Early reports suggest some leading bank economists are predicting only one more rate rise, but the futures market is indicating at least two more, with no easing in sight until 2024 at least. So with the RBA's official rate currently sitting at 3.1%, and a 100% market probability of another 0.25% in February, we could see rates at 3.8% sometime in the June quarter. The consecutive rate increases totaling 3% in 2022 were the sharpest/fastest in most memories, so another 50 to 75 bps will put the icing even on that. The problem is that consumer spending hasn't changed significantly to have had an impact on inflation, and as yet, whilst there's obviously some stress in the housing market and in mortgage land, the flow-on effects that Philip Lowe is looking for haven't occurred. Of particular worry will be the fact that whilst last year's inflationary spike was primarily imported, unavoidable, or externally generated, (floods, oil, supply chain, Ukraine etc) there's the risk that home-grown inflation from wages pressure in a tight post-COVID labour market takes over. The theme of many of last year's editions of "Hedge Clippings" was interest rates and inflation, so it looks as if this year's shaping up the same way. Ditto Ukraine, which sadly doesn't look like ending quickly. Meanwhile, it does (hopefully) seem that the focus on the hard done by, but over-privileged whinger from Montecito has faded, although possibly only until his next issue - likely to be not getting a front row seat at the Coronation. Next week we'll publish the Australian Fund Monitors Review of fund and sector performances for 2022. In the meantime, we can recommend the four part documentary series on Bernie Madoff currently showing on Netflix. Or if you want something less serious, but no less enjoyable, try "Slow Horses" on Apple TV. Both are variously both more educational or entertaining than the six part Netflix saga of Harry and Meghan. That's it - the last time we mention them. (Promise). |
|
News & Insights Outlook Snapshot | Cyan Investment Management 10k Words | Equitable Investors December 2022 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
Firstly, good riddance to 2022, which for most investors and the majority of fund managers was a year they'd happily forget.
20 Jan 2023 - Hedge Clippings |20 January 2023
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 20 January 2023 Welcome to the first edition of Hedge Clippings for 2023. Firstly, good riddance to 2022, which for most investors and the majority of fund managers was a year they'd happily forget. The cause of most of the damage was the sharp increase in interest rates, triggered in turn by an outbreak of inflation, as noted by L1 Capital in their December performance report:
The last sentence reveals why so many funds struggled in 2022. No one expected an inflationary break out, thus market expectations - including those of central banks - for rates rises were subdued, to say the least. Throw in the unexpected invasion of Ukraine in February, plus turmoil in China, and it's easy to see why only 29% of the 700+ funds in the FundMonitors database, (including the above mentioned L1 Capital's Global Long Short Fund which returned 9.8%) provided positive returns for the year, and less than a quarter of all equity funds managed to outperform the ASX 200 Accumulation Index. Put bluntly, central banks, including our own RBA, and economists were caught looking in the wrong direction, and thus fund managers had to readjust to the new environment, which by the last quarter of the year many had managed to do. The ASX fared better than most global markets, falling 1.08% on an accumulation basis, while the S&P500 was down 18%, and the NASDAQ fell 33%. Unusually in times of equity market turmoil, bond markets didn't provide a safe haven. Looking forward, it seems inflation, while still a major issue, may have peaked in the last quarter of 2022, particularly in the US where it dropped to 6.45% in December, down from 9.06% in June. Meanwhile, in the UK the December annual inflation figure was 10.5%, down slightly from 10.7% the previous month. That may allow central banks to ease off on further rate rises, but we are unlikely to see rates fall until much later in the year, by which time the looming recession will have been confirmed. So while the path ahead is not going to be easy, and is still uncertain, hopefully, there are less unknowns: The war in Ukraine will drag on, and hopefully not escalate further. China remains a 50/50 bet, although a far cry from the economic and political juggernaut it seemed to be a couple of years ago. COVID, whilst remaining a threat thankfully seems to be receding or at least becoming more manageable. Of course, thinking that the bad news is already out there is dangerous - the unexpected is always just around the corner. But compared to this time last year, surely markets are more prepared for what might lie ahead? |
|
News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund December 2022 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
22 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |22 December 2022
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 22 December 2022 For our final Hedge Clippings of the year, we thought we'd look back 12 months for some inspiration, namely from the last edition of 2021, when we noted that the "certainty of uncertainty persists, along with the realisation that COVID will be with us for some time." One year on, and COVID's certainly still with us, although like many things, it seems we're learning to live with it. Elsewhere our prediction of more uncertainty proved 100% correct, with the war in Ukraine sparking inflation, and in turn unexpected rate rises, and thus the inevitable collapse of the era of easy money, and with it the tech boom. We haven't heard a report of Charlie Munger's response to the rout in Bitcoin and the crypto-sphere, but we're sure it would actually be predictable. In hindsight (easy-peasy) Scomo's demise was obvious, although the Teals' success caught most (even themselves) by surprise. We're not sure if Albo's victory caught anyone by surprise, but his smooth transition and avoidance of political potholes was welcome. Maybe the uncertainties in that regard are waiting in next May's (real) budget. Less predictable in 2022 was Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter (surely a thought bubble?) followed by his equally unpredictable self-firing, the seeming disintegration of the government in the UK, the boredom of Netflix's $100m Ginge and Whinge show, China's COVID lockdown, and the fact that the ASX was one of the better performing (albeit negative) global markets. Looking forward to 2023: The R word is likely to dominate as recession either looms (or deepens depending on location) as inflation stays stronger for longer, and interest rates follow suit - even if the pace of rate rises eases, they're unlikely to start falling until 2024. Sadly there seems no quick end in sight to the war in Ukraine unless Russian mothers tire of seeing their sons return injured - or worse as the case may be. Penny Wong has started the reconciliation process with China, and once a suitable period has passed to allow sufficient face-saving (or should that be a sufficient period to allow suitable face-saving?) we suspect normality will resume, whatever normality means. Lachlan Murdoch is intent on continuing to rescue the reputation of his, and we presume the Murdoch family's, name from the "serious harm" inflicted by Crikey, which of course leads us to the Trump saga. Will it ever end? No doubt the lawyers hope not. More immediately, Hedge Clippings is looking forward to a short break and recharging the batteries before starting all over again next year. We'll be back in the latter half of January. Meanwhile, from all the team at FundMonitors.com we would like to take this opportunity to wish you and your loved ones a Happy Christmas, and a Healthy and Prosperous New Year!
|
|
News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Trip Insights: United States | 4D Infrastructure Investment Perspectives: The yield curve, recessions and soft landings | Quay Global Investors November 2022 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
16 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |16 December 2022
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 16 December 2022 As 2022 drags to an end, it's worth taking a backward glance at the year just (almost) gone, if for no other reason than to try to fathom out what's in store in 2023. Hindsight being a wonderful thing, the backward glance is a much easier task than the crystal ball, but let's see how we go. The year has been dominated globally by two major occurrences - Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and an outbreak of inflation. Neither were widely anticipated by the vast majority of us, although no doubt political and security analysts perhaps had an inkling of the potential for Putin to upset the order of things. While the situation on the ground in Ukraine has been catastrophic, the economic effects have impacted the world at large, including a significant increase in energy costs, and as a result inflation. However, inflationary pressures were already building, and even if central banks around the world saw it coming, they were slow to act on it. Enter COVID - although to be fair 2022 was the third year that COVID-19 had dominated the world, and wreaked its own havoc. The difference this year has been the opening up of the global economy post the COVID induced lockdowns, with the exception of China where XI went in the opposite direction. Supply chain issues, a tight labour market, pent up consumer demand (thanks in part to a massive build up of government support), zero to negative interest rates, and seemingly unstoppable speculative markets all intertwined to create the perfect inflationary storm. As noted above, central banks were generally slow to react with higher interest rates, with the RBA no exception, but equally, not alone in doing "too little, too late". Looking forward there are some signs that inflation (in the US in any event) may have peaked, but that's largely as a result of oil falling from over US$120 per barrel mid year to circa $70 in December. And the US FED's Jerome Powell made it abundantly clear overnight that a slight dip in inflation in the short term isn't going to change their objective of getting it back into the 2-3% range. Which brings us to next year. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending - so much for a temporary military exercise! A recession in the UK is a forgone conclusion (if not already a reality), and there's a widespread view that the only way US inflation gets back to the 2-3% target is by inducing a recession there as well. The influential Economist magazine says a global recession in 2023 is "inevitable" and notes that the editors of the Collins English Dictionary have declared "permacrisis" to be their word of the year for 2022. In case you're not familiar with the word, it is defined as an "an extended period of instability and insecurity", which as the Economist notes, "is an ugly portmanteau that accurately encapsulates today's world as 2023 dawns." A quick Google search of "is a recession inevitable" will give you 6.6m references or links, although time and space (plus the fact that unless you're an economic weirdo you'll get bored after the first few) precludes us from adding any more in Hedge Clippings. That's pretty sobering language on a global view, but what of our rather large southern portion of the globe? We haven't been immune to inflation, or to most, if not all, the issues noted above. Of course we have also been on the outer with China, who have their own set of issues to deal with. However, we are, as ever, the "lucky country" even if it might not seem that way, given the events of the past two or three years. As such, there'll always be opportunities, and fund managers and their funds able to make the most of them. This week we include a video interview with Rob Gregory from Glenmore Asset Management, whose Australian Equities Fund is one of the Top Ten Performing funds over one (7%), three (14%), and five (19%) years in the Equity Long Small/Mid Cap Peer Group, no mean feat given that the Peer Group as a whole has struggled in 2022. As Rob explains, much of his success this year can be attributed to avoiding the pitfalls, as much as picking the winners. You can see the interview below. Finally, this will be our last Hedge Clippings for 2022, unless we sneak one in next Thursday as a special Christmas treat (!). Thank you for bearing with our views, ponderings, and political biases on Friday afternoons over the past year, and we look forward to catching up again in 2023. In the meantime, best wishes and happiness to you and your loved ones for the holiday season, wherever you may be. |
|
News & Insights Manager Insights | Glenmore Asset Management The energy development opportunity for European offshore wind | 4D Infrastructure Net Zero Megatrend | Insync Fund Managers November 2022 Performance News Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
9 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |09 December 2022
|
||
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 09 December 2022 |
||
|
||
|
||
|
||
|
||
|
||
|
||
|
||
|
||
|
||
News & Insights Stock Story: ASML | Magellan Asset Management Investment Perspectives: No, bond vigilantes don't exist for a monetary sovereign | Quay Global Investors November 2022 Performance News L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund |
||
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
2 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |02 December 2022
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 02 December 2022 For the first time this year market analysts - or at least the media - are hinting that the interest rate medicine we've collectively been taking to curb inflation might be working, and as a result, the US Fed and Australia's RBA might take a breather on the size of future rate increases. Jerome Powell indicated as such this week, saying they might start as soon as December, while also cautioning that there was "still a long way to go in restoring price stability." Meanwhile, in Australia the ABS released monthly inflation figures this week, for the first time providing a monthly rather than a quarterly report, which showed annual inflation at 6.9% to the end of October, down from September's number of 7.3%. In his last statement on November 1, RBA Governor Philip Lowe expected inflation to peak around 8% by the end of the year, so there's some cause for optimism, even though his past (admittedly longer term) forecasting hasn't always been spot on. There's also a slight caveat on the make up of the ABS' monthly inflation numbers, which only measures 63% of the CPI basket, excluding for instance electricity and gas prices, which - unless you're living "off the grid" or under a rock - you might have noticed have been on the rise recently. With their board meeting next Tuesday, we won't have long to wait to see if the RBA holds off on their next rate increase, but most economists think not, having "only" increased them by 0.25% in October and November, and with a 2 month gap to the next meeting in February 2023. Meanwhile, it's worth remembering that in the US there's room to "ease off" as rates there rose by 0.75% in each of June, July, September, and November. Meanwhile, equity markets, renowned for pricing in future conditions and earnings, are pretty confident that the worst is over, with the ASX 200 in November posting its second successive monthly rise of over 6%, to take its 12 month return into positive territory, up (just) 0.39%. Adding in dividends, the total 12 month return was a not so shabby 5%, or just over 2% YTD since January. That doesn't mean everything has recovered, with the ASX Small Industrials down 21% over 12 months and the same YTD. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500's Total Return was down 9.21% over 12 months to the end of November, and -13.1% YTD, while for some really eye watering gyrations, the S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market Index has toppled -71% over 12 months, having been UP 296% over 12 months to November 2021. All this goes to show that markets move in different ways at different times. There is no "one" market, hence the need for analysis and asset allocation. Investors and fund managers understand the cycles, even if they are frustrated by them at times when their preferred strategy or sector is facing headwinds, while other sectors are benefiting from tailwinds. This was shown best by the growth/value divergence (and subsequent reversal) of the past five years and is also reflected in the popularity and performance of specific investment strategies and sectors we see in the FundMonitors.com database. One such sector has been the significant, but often overlooked, fixed income sector, encompassing debt and credit funds which lack popular media appeal while equities (and the tech/growth sector in particular) often dominate investor and media interest. In falling markets the attraction of regular income and capital protection come into their own, potentially with a yield of 6-10%. Out of this has emerged a Peer Group of hybrid funds, blending credit and equity, or equity like elements, designed to provide the regular income needs of investors, coupled with either equity upside and/or downside protection. While no two funds are the same, the Hybrid Credit Peer Group comprises a variety of funds with varying investment processes and performances, and their returns and risk profiles have shown the benefits of the approach. For example, FundMonitors has recently completed a FACTORS Research Report on the *Altor AltFi Income Fund, which "invests via a portfolio of private credit instruments (loans) across a selected group of small to medium enterprises. Investors receive quarterly cash distributions, and gain further upside through free attaching equity exposure on selected debt investments the Fund makes" and has returned over 11% p.a. over 4 years since inception, with a Sharpe Ratio of 3.93%. Along similar lines is a new fund from *Collins St. Asset Management, which invests in convertible notes, targeting distributions of 2% per quarter [8% per annum], with the potential for equity upside on conversion of the loan at the end of the term. This week we caught up with Rob Hay from Collins St. to discuss the strategy, and you can watch the video below. These funds also seek to fill a gap in the funding market for smaller and medium sized companies, both listed and private, which was created post the Hayne Royal Commission as Banks and traditional lenders left the market, or restricted lending to the sector. *Both these funds are only open to wholesale or sophisticated investors. Past performance is no guarantee, and investors should seek appropriate advice. |
|
Manager Insights | Collins St Asset Management The Long and The Short: Five stocks for the next five years | Kardinia Capital 10k Words | Equitable Investors October 2022 Performance News |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
25 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |25 November 2022
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 25 November 2022 "One swallow doth not a summer make" So goes the old saying - just how old might surprise some readers, given its origin can be traced back to the Greek philosopher Aristotle, (384-322 BC) following which its first recorded use in the English language was more recently in 1539. But we digress, because we're using the phrase to describe the economy, and markets, which following a dismal year to date, not only had a welcome bounce or spring in October but have continued onward and upward in November. Time will tell if that's two "swallows" in a row, but it is certainly welcome. |
|
New Funds on FundMonitors.com Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update October | Australian Secure Capital Fund What drives poor returns? | Insync Fund Managers 4D inflation podcast (part 2): The US Inflation Reduction Act | 4D Infrastructure October 2022 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|
18 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |18 November 2022
|
|
Hedge Clippings | Friday, 18 November 2022 As we glide, slide or stagger towards the last few weeks of what will go down as a pretty forgettable year (unless you are Anthony Albanese who continues his dream start as PM) it is worth considering that thanks to a recent rally, the Australian equity market has performed well against its US equivalent. Australian managed funds - although as a whole positive in October - have found it a difficult year as well, with the average equity based fund on the FundMonitors.com data base down 11.31% over 12 months to the end of October, vs. a fall of just 2.01% for the ASX200 total return index. Over the same 12 months (based on 88% of the results to date) only 16% of equity funds managed to outperform the ASX 200, which will no doubt be taken as welcome news by the fans of index or passive funds. However, we believe that misses the point - namely that just as the performance of individual stocks within the index varies, so too will the performance of managed funds. The key, depending on one's strategy or objective, is to select the outperformers. For instance, over 12 months the performance of the Top 10 funds has ranged from 19.8% through to 43.7%, while over 3 years the range has been 17.97% to 44.67% per annum. Over 5 years the number drops, but the best performing fund - Glenmore Australian Equities - returned 19% pa. followed by Regal's Small Companies Fund at 18.25% and with Bennelong's Emerging Companies Fund in third place at 17.41%. Consistency is not always easy to achieve: Of the Top 10 funds over 5 years, only 5 funds were positive over 1, 2, 3 and 4 years as well (Glenmore, Samuel Terry, Regal Amazon, GQC Global, and Australian Eagle's Long Short Fund) which probably underlines how difficult 2022 has been, particularly in the small cap space. Added to the variability of returns has been the rise - and fall - of crypto funds, which took out 3 of the Top 10 spots over 2 and 3 years, but to the surprise of no one, take out 5 places among the 10 worst performing funds over 1 year. When it comes to investing in managed funds, success is a combination of careful research and diversification. |
|
Magellan Global Strategy Update | Magellan Asset Management Drawdowns and small stocks for God-like performance | Equitable Investors October 2022 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday
|