NEWS
30 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 30 June 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 30 June 2023 CPI and Retail Sales Numbers throw doubt on Tuesday's RBA decision May's CPI and Retail Sales numbers released by the ABS this week gave economists reason to reconsider where inflation really sits. However, looking through headlines to the details, the question remains: Will the numbers be sufficient to convince the RBA to hit the "pause" button next Tuesday? Even if they do hold off, it's likely to only be temporary, and in the longer term, there's little chance there'll be any meaningful relief for stressed mortgage holders for at least another year, and possibly two. Taking a look at the Monthly CPI results first, which seasonally adjusted at 5.6% for the 12 months to May, and down from 6.8% in April, were, on the face of it, a cause for optimism. Stripping out volatile items (fruit and vegetables, fuel, holiday travel, and accommodation) the number was less encouraging at 6.4%, but still a marginal improvement on April's rise of 6.5%. Annual Trimmed Mean inflation (i.e. stripping out the extremes) was 6.1%, also down from April's figure of 6.7%. The first issue is fuel, which was the only negative number, falling 8% for the month, but as anyone who owns a motor vehicle (or at least pays at the bowser) would know, IS volatile, having risen 9.5% in the 12 months to April, and fallen 8.2% in the 12 months to March. Of the items which significantly offset fuel's negative number, the largest increases were in every day (and therefore largely unavoidable) items, such as Bread and Cereals (+12.8%), Dairy (+15%), Food Products (11.5%), and Electricity (+14.1%), and all of which had been elevated at or around those levels for April and March. Leaving aside the question of whether suppliers and retailers of these categories are taking advantage because A) they're staples and therefore largely unavoidable purchases, or B) they can lay the blame for price rise on their suppliers or the overall consumer expectation of inflation, are the above numbers in part responsible (in conjunction with mortgage and housing) for consumer confidence and financial concerns as a whole? Hedge Clippings rather selfishly notes that Alcohol is running below the inflationary average at 5.0%, down somewhat from the April and March numbers, but let's not go there. Against this, Retail turnover (as reported by the ABS) for May rose 0.7%, following a flat result in April, and a rise of 0.4% in March, supported by a rise in spending on food and eating out, combined with a boost in spending on discretionary goods, as consumers took advantage of larger than usual promotional activity and sales in May, along with Mother's Day. As the ABS noted, "Food retailing has recorded a monthly rise for 16 or the last 18 months," and continued by saying that "most of the growth in food-related spending this year has been driven by rising prices." Back to Tuesday's meeting and decision, the RBA will obviously be looking behind the headline numbers that the average consumer recalls, particularly the ongoing strength in the employment statistics, and the National Wage Case Decision increasing the minimum wage by 5.75% handed down in June, but yet to impact the numbers. As we noted at the outset, will the seasonally adjusted result of 5.6%, down from 6.8% be enough for the pause button to be pressed? Even if it is, we would expect it is far too early to budget for any reduction. As much as the RBA is expecting inflation to improve in 2024/2025, there's no way they will risk letting persist at current levels (or worse) by acting too soon. That's assuming they can get the inflation genie back in the bottle by then, without triggering a recession. While everyone is aware of inflation, and few can avoid it, it is evident that it is only impacting the shopping habits of certain (although increasing) consumer demographics. Unfortunately, interest rates are the bluntest of instruments (and the only one) in the RBA's tool kit. This week we held the last of our regular Webinars, with our COO Damen Purcell interviewing three guest fund managers, namely Matthew Langsford from Terra Capital, Dan Porter, from Pure Asset Management, and David Franklyn, from Argonaut Resources who discussed their approach to the opportunities and risks in the Resources Sector. Click here to view a recording (45 minutes) of the Webinar, and here to view each of the Fund's Profiles on www.fundmonitors.com. |
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News & Insights Risk-adjusting small-cap upside | PURE Asset Management Investment Perspectives: Do developers offer the best exposure to a recovering residential property | Quay Global Investors May 2023 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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23 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 23 June 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 23 June 2023 Rate Rises and Inflation - what else? The RBA started the tightening process just over 12 months ago in an effort to firstly contain, and then to subdue inflation. The timing was broadly in step with central banks in the UK and Europe as inflation was global. Given they're still increasing rates, or threatening to, and consumers seem reluctant to respond, one has to ask how successful they've been - or possibly how much worse inflation would be if central banks had sat on their collective hands? This week in his twice yearly appearance before politicians trying to make a point, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was a "pretty good guess" that US rates would increase twice more this year as he tries to subdue inflation back to the 2% level while avoiding higher unemployment, and thus a recession. In the UK, the Bank of England is facing the same issue, increasing rates by a further 0.5%, stating "The economy is doing better than expected, but inflation is still too high (8.7%) and we've got to deal with it." Unfortunately, "dealing with it" involves inflicting pain on consumers, as pointed out by RBA deputy Governor Michelle Bullock in her speech this week, giving Philip Lowe a break from the firing line. In spite of widespread anecdotal evidence of consumer pain being reflected by retail sales, particularly for big ticket and electrical goods, strong employment statistics, not only in Australia but also in the US and UK, are spoiling the objective of higher rates. Bullock pointed out there needs to be a balance. With the RBA's current forecast of inflation returning to target (2-3%) by mid 2025, and unemployment increasing to 4.5% by the end of 2024, which they estimate still equates to "full employment," they judge that the balance between supply and demand will be achieved. As Philip Lowe frequently points out, that balance can also be described as a "narrow path" between inflation, higher rates, and recession. Meanwhile, equity markets continue to confound and confuse. The ASX All Ordinaries has risen 10.5% in the 12 months since 23rd of June, 2022. Wind the start date for that 12 month period back to 31st of May, and that 12 month performance becomes negative. Stock and sector selection, plus of course timing, has been key. On Tuesday next week, we are holding a further Sector Review, this time focusing on the resource sector. Register here for our manager round table webinar, where we will be joined by three Australian specialist resource managers to get their views on the opportunities and risks for the sector. |
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News & Insights Chat GPT and the implications of this new technology | Magellan Asset Management Market Update - May | Australian Secure Capital Fund May 2023 Performance News 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Emit Capital Climate Finance Equity Fund Bennelong Australian Equities Fund |
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16 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 16 June 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 16 June 2023 Inflation: No Pain, No Gain. Paul Keating will long be remembered for his "recession we had to have" comment, made way back in 1990. The self-styled "World's Greatest Treasurer" embraced the attention the comment gave him at the time, and has frequently dined out on it ever since. 33 years later we're back to facing another recession - with a number of leading business figures this week putting the chances at 50:50. Anecdotal evidence indicates that sections of the economy, and/or the community, are closer than others (if not there already), but meanwhile we're still treading the "narrow path" that Philip Lowe is trying to take the economy down, inflicting economic pain to achieve an inflationary gain. The causes - and hopefully the effects - of the 1990's recession and today's recession - or should that be tomorrow's - are quite different, although there are some parallels. The excesses of the '80's led to the crash of '87, which flowed to Australia, as did high inflation. By 1992 unemployment was 11 per cent, and mortgage rates topped 17%. This time around, we're still hostage to global tides and currents, and as such the economic after-effects of the GFC, QE, COVID, and Ukraine, but we are thankfully a long way from approaching the levels of 1992. Where Keating was keen to deflect responsibility (nothing's changed!) even to the extent of implying he should be given the credit, this time around all the criticism has been directed at Philip Lowe thanks to his forward guidance in March 2020 that rates, then at an unprecedented level of 0.1%, would remain there for an "extended period". In November of that year, in an attempt to stimulate an economy he's now trying to cool, he defined that period as "at least three years". In February 2021, he made his now famous prediction that the RBA's expectation was that rates would "not increase until 2024 at the earliest". While all the finger pointing is going on, and with the benefit of hindsight, let's remember the timeline: In March 2020, when Lowe's forward guidance mentioned an "extended period" of low rates, COVID-19 had just emerged. Later that month the government declared a state of emergency, 14 day quarantines, and a national lockdown. In NSW, indoor and outdoor gatherings were limited to two people. In July 2020, Victoria commenced a 16 week lockdown. Consequently in the June quarter of 2020, GDP fell 6.7%, then rebounded in the following four quarters, before falling 2.1% in September 2021. The RBA's targeted inflation band was (and remains) 2-3%. In December 2020 inflation came in at just 0.09%, resulting in the RBA's February 2021 guidance that "the Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3% target range". At that stage inflation had not been above 2% for more than one quarter since September 2014, and by June 2020 it had dipped -0.3%. Lowe and the RBA Board undoubtedly misjudged the post COVID rebound, and can be excused for not foreseeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, but two things emerge: Firstly, for the previous six or seven years they had been battling LOW inflation, and particularly given COVID, they were keen, or possibly desperate, to stimulate the economy. Secondly, fellow central bankers around the world made the same mistakes. However, Lowe is on the outer, particularly with Chalmers, who unlike Keating in 1990, is looking for a scapegoat. So where to now? Earlier this week the Federal Reserve held US rates steady for the first time in a year, despite projecting that inflation will persist, leaving their options open to move rates higher going forward. In Australia, May's unemployment level fell back to 3.6%, contradicting the weak March GDP number of 0.2%, the weakest result since September 2021. By that time Australia's economic journey down the "narrow path" will have been confirmed, along with Philip Lowe's walk down a wooden plank. |
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News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Quay podcast: The surprising trends emerging in real estate | Quay Global Investors May 2023 Performance News |
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9 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 09 June 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 09 June 2023 As previously suggested, it looks like inflation, and thus higher rates, are going to be more persistent, even if RBA Governor Philip Lowe suggested this week that it has "passed its peak". Having made that statement, he then went on to say that: ''Recent data indicate that upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased," which made it sound like he is having two-bob-each-way on the outcome. And who can blame him (apart from the Treasurer) as he increased rates by 0.25% yet again, given the issues he outlined in the statement released following the RBA's meeting on Tuesday? Against the background of a tight labour market, wages growth - not helped by an increase in award wages - is expected to pick up. Meanwhile, while there's been no improvement in labour productivity, resulting in a worrying increase in unit labour costs. Lowe's path to a soft landing - or in other words slowing the economy whilst avoiding a recession, is looking increasingly difficult to achieve with the latest GDP for Q1 just 0.2%, down from 0.6% in Q's 3 and 4, 2022. In the US a recession followed the last five instances when inflation peaked above 5%, in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1990, and 2008. Indeed, the US economy recorded two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, technically qualifying as a recession, before recording a growth of 3.2% in Q3, 2.4% in Q4, and 1.3% in Q1, 2023. Covid aside, the last recession in Australia was in 1990/91. With the median age in Australia currently just over 38, a large proportion of the population has never experienced a recession, which is maybe why the threat of an impending one is not yet biting into consumer spending. While the media is currently full of anecdotal evidence of economic hardship and mortgage/rental stress, this is unevenly spread across the population. A report from PEXA released this week shows that over 25% of all property purchases in Australia's eastern states were funded without a mortgage in 2022. Inflation is real, but the RBA's efforts to curb it are only changing the spending habits of a minority, and generally those with less or limited discretionary spending capacity. Mortgage rates are only high by historical standards, magnified by the size of loans taken out to afford sharply higher property prices. In 2021, 35% of households had a mortgage, while 32% did not, and 28.4% were renters from private or other landlords. All the focus is on mortgage repayments and mortgage stress, and only more recently rental stress, resulting in interest rates (and to a degree inflation) not impacting a significant portion of the population. For the RBA this creates an issue, as the "enemy" - inflation - comes from all and many quarters, only some of which are homegrown or under domestic control. If Philip Lowe's rate increases to date have had limited effect on consumer spending and demand, then there's no doubt that "some further tightening of monetary policy may be required" along with an increased risk of recession. However with multiple inputs, and only interest rates as a tool, the RBA's "narrow path" is looking narrower - and decidedly slippery. |
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News & Insights Meta Platforms - AI Winner | Insync Fund Managers ESG Policy: The real-world impacts | Magellan Asset Management April 2023 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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2 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 02 June 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 02 June 2023 Phillip Lowe had a subtle shot at politicians this week, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers in particular, when fronting a Senate Estimates hearing in Canberra, asking the Senators to consider whether fighting inflation should only be left to the RBA? "In a perfect world, you'd have a different set of arrangements," Lowe proposed. "The other way you could reduce aggregate demand at the moment is to increase taxes or reduce government spending." Of course that might involve some of the senators in question losing their jobs, which they'd rather not do. He could also have added something about the government not supporting wage rises, but sensibly kept away from that, even going so far as saying he didn't think the budget was adding to inflation, but actually reducing it. It's still unknown if Lowe will keep his job when his term (or time) is up in September, and Chalmers has given no hint of support, suggesting that he won't. Whether he does or not is unlikely to change his successor's focus on inflation, and therefore the upward direction of interest rates, even though Lowe's claims that the 11 rate rises over the past year are working. The Fair Work Commission's 5.75% increase in minimum wages awarded to 2.6 million workers, and 8.6% for 180,000 on the lowest rate, won't be helping when the RBA announces the outcome of next Tuesday's board meeting. As a result, a bevy of bank economists are forecasting a further 0.25% rise, with some now suggesting that a peak of 4.6% - or three more increases - is not out of the question. Not only are interest rates a blunt instrument with which to manage inflation, their effect on the economy is a lagging one. As a consequence, when the results show up in the statistics the RBA use in their monthly determinations, the tipping point in the economy has already occurred. Hence rates inevitably rise (and fall) too far. For many people - those under mortgage or rental stress, or minimum wages - that tipping point has already occurred, so if a cash rate of 4.6% is on the cards there'll be some serious pain, and certainly Lowe's increases will have worked. Even if he's not going to be there to take the credit - or the blame - when or if inflation returns to the 2-3% target, and rates gradually follow suit. On Tuesday afternoon next week at 4.15 we are holding the next in our series of Fund Manager Round Table Webinars, this time focusing on the Hybrid Credit sector. Register here to join Ben Harrison from Altor Capital, Nick Thomson from AquAsia Funds Management, and Patrick William from Rixon Capital for their take on the opportunities and risks for the sector. |
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News & Insights Market Update April | Australian Secure Capital Fund The golden opportunities for infrastructure in a challenging environment | 4D Infrastructure April 2023 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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26 May 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 26 May 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 26 May 2023 It seems that much in the World is poised on a knife edge, although Australia would appear to be better positioned than most: The war in Ukraine has no clear victor at this stage, at least on the battlefield, although one would have to say that Putin has lost in every other way. Putin's miscalculation has helped unleash inflation, which thanks to years of government intervention post GFC, plus COVID, was probably always headed for a breakout. We presume (hope) that the impasse between Biden and the Republicans who control Congress will be resolved, with current reports suggesting the $31.4 trillion US debt ceiling will be raised for 2 years. If so the sticking point is now over how the extra will be spent - military and defense, or social programs. Either way, Biden's looking a little lame, potentially leaving the way open for the unthinkable - the return of Donald Trump. The UK's economy (in fact most things in the UK) is a mess, everyone seems to distrust China (including a fair number of Chinese), inflation looks like staying high for longer, both globally and in Australia, and as a result, economists are divided on the RBA's next move. As a result investors and markets can't work out if the worst is over, or a recession is around the corner. From a perspective of the performance of managed funds, the worst would seem to be over. Most managers, although by no means all, found 2022 one of the most difficult they had experienced, but since the start of this year (4 months to the end of April) just over 90% of managers have provided their investors with positive returns, compared with just 48% who have done so over the past 12 months. Even the unloved and underperforming Equity Small Cap Peer Group has shown some green shoots, returning 3.54% over 6 months to April, and recovering some of the 6.97% negative performance of the past 12 months. Over the longer term - 7 years - which is generally accepted as the recommended time-frame for investments in most managed funds, ALL peer groups are in positive territory. Over 3 years, including 2022, Australian Equity small cap funds averaged 12.71% pa, and large caps 13.99%. Hidden among the 3 year Small Cap averages, the top 3 were: Altor's Alpha Fund (33.96%), Spheria Micro Cap (30.49%), and Glenmore (26.76%). Large Caps were headed by Ausbil's Geared Equity (35.62%), Datt Capital (21.74%) and Collins St Value Fund (21.0%). For full details and data on over 700 funds, visit www.fundmonitors.com. |
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News & Insights Market Commentary - April | Glenmore Asset Management Investment Perspectives: The housing market's turning - and not just in Australia April 2023 Performance News Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) |
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19 May 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 19 May 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 19 May 2023 This week's labour market figures showed a surprise monthly increase in unemployment from 3.5% in March to 3.7%, having reached an all time low of 3.4% last October. It has taken over 12 months of increased inflation, and as a consequence 13 months of interest rate increases, to flow through to the economy, and specifically to the labour market. To date, in spite of all the anecdotal evidence in the media, and reports from NAB and others that a combination of inflation and interest rates were causing severe stress to household budgets, there was little statistical evidence for the RBA to show for their efforts when setting monetary policy. (The possible exception to this has been the building industry, where a number of well publicised failures have been reported, no doubt as a result of fixed price contracts, supply chain delays and rapid increases in material costs in the interim.) Looking behind the headline unemployment rate of 3.7% (i.e. those actually looking for a job), the underlying numbers confirm the change in trend: According to Trading Economics, with data from the ABS, the total number of unemployed people in April increased by 18,400 to 528,010, while labour costs increased, with Average Weekly Wages rising over the quarter to $1,378.60 from $1,344.70, and Manufacturing Wages increasing to $1,545.60 from $1,464.50. Where this leaves the RBA's June decision will be the subject of much debate: Obviously, the 11 rate increases totaling 3.75% over 13 months are starting to have some effect, which may lead to a further pause in June, but while the RBA's forecasting unemployment to reach 4% by the end of this year - a rate they may have to adjust upwards - they won't be taking their eyes off the inflationary effect of higher wage costs recently awarded or announced. The RBA's nirvana is a soft landing, but just as Nirvana is difficult to achieve for a Buddhist, so will be the economic equivalent for Philip Lowe (or his successor!). |
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News & Insights Collins St Special Situation Fund No.2 (Global Gold & Precious Metals) Webinar Update / Round 2 Investment | Collins St Asset Management Airlie Quarterly Update | Airlie Funds Management 10k Words | May Edition | Equitable Investors April 2023 Performance News Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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5 May 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 12 May 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 12 May 2023 Treasurer Jim Chalmers was understandably pleased to be able to hand down a budget forecasting a surprise surplus, but according to more than a few economists the real surprise will be whether it eventuates or not. As has been widely questioned, the risk is that the selected spending initiatives will be inflationary, leaving the RBA with no alternative but to either increase interest rates further or keep them higher for longer. Meanwhile, on the revenue side, there is still no appetite from either the government nor the opposition to fix or address the reliance on personal income tax. The opportunity has been lost for another year, as it has every year since the Henry Tax Review in 2010, and no doubt will be put in the too hard basket again next year as well. Hedge Clippings is not going to dwell on the budget too long - it is covered more than enough elsewhere. However, it was interesting, if not alarming, that a research paper out of the RBA this week estimates the chance of a recession next year at 80%. If inflation does continue at an elevated level as many believe it will, and the RBA sticks to its determination to address it, a recession, whether with a "hard" or "soft" landing, is likely to be the outcome. It's going to be a delicate balance, or as Philip Lowe describes it, a "narrow road". Turning to markets and managed funds. Market shocks, such as the '87 crash, the tech wreck of 2000, or the GFC, tend to create opportunity - particularly for the brave - after extended periods of investor exuberance, which when coupled with excessive leverage lead to stretched valuations. The past two to three years however have been different, but according to many managers we have spoken to, could be considered one of the most challenging periods in recent memory. Certainly there were stretched valuations, particularly in the tech and growth sectors, post GFC thanks to QE and central bank intervention, but little could have prepared markets for the combined effects of COVID, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the resultant outbreak of global inflation. The small cap sector always takes the brunt when investors switch from risk on to risk off - having paved the way and outperformed in the first place. Over the year to December 2022, the average performance of the 86 funds which make up the Australian Mid and Small Cap Peer Group fell by 19% compared with the Australian Large Cap Peer Group, which fell on average only 4%. By contrast they topped the performance tables three years before. This cycle is not unusual given the lack of liquidity often accompanying stocks outside the ASX200 (and sometimes within it) but there's little doubt that as a result the lack of interest, or appetite for risk accentuates the losses, and in turn creates opportunity. The key of course comes in the timing, so earlier this week we hosted a webinar discussion with three "small cap" fund managers, namely Dean Fergie from Cyan Investment Management, Steven Johnson from Forager Funds Management, and Gary Rollo from Montgomery Investment Management, to ask them the sometimes difficult question about their experiences over the past two years or so, but more importantly, if the worst of the current market was behind them? You can watch a recording of the discussion below, but there were some key take-aways from each of them. None of them shied away from the difficult questions but were all consistent in their view that trying to time the bottom or turning point in the market was an impossible exercise. Each gave examples of oversold companies or markets, and each reiterated that holding profitable, successful businesses, with strong balance sheets (sometimes trading at or below asset, or even cash backing) will provide outsized future returns, rather than selling them at current depressed valuations. Of interest is the fact that while the small cap sector has still underperformed the ASX200 in the six months to the end of April (+3.83% to +8.71%) at least it is positive, while over the past three months while marginally negative, the small cap peer group has just outperformed (-0.70% to the ASX200 at -0.80%). Maybe the tide is about to turn? |
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News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com The Future for Small Caps Webinar Recording Magellan Global Fund Update | Magellan Asset Management A once in a generation opportunity | Insync Fund Managers April 2023 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
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5 May 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 05 May 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 05 May 2023 "This budget will be handed down in the context of an uncertain and volatile global economy which is precariously placed." Thus Treasurer Jim Chalmers summed up his view of the challenge facing him next Tuesday following his visit to the US to meet his offshore counterparts, and things would seem to have become even more volatile and precarious since then. That was back in mid April when he returned with the message that the IMF was forecasting "an incredibly weak five years of economic growth." Since then the US banking system has gone from bad to worse following the collapse of Silicon Valley, Signature, and now First Republic Bank, with others likely to follow as investor confidence tumbles. Bank failures are not that uncommon in the US, as shown by this list from the FIDC, with some analysts estimating that over 50% of the 4,800+ US banks could be under threat. While in Australia we have a well capitalised, and much more concentrated banking landscape, we too rely on the market's - and in particular depositors' - confidence that their funds are secure, irrespective of government guarantees. While Australia's economy and budget may be insulated to a degree by record low unemployment, bracket creep, and high commodity prices, they are not immune to the stubbornly high inflation which is spreading to the services sector, and increased labour costs. Basic wage demands, along with calls for improved welfare, are likely to feature heavily in Tuesday's budget, even if any increases will be insufficient for those unable to offset the increases in their basic living costs. What is almost certain to be missing on Tuesday is any serious attempt to fix the outdated, inefficient and broken taxation system on which the welfare system relies. Meanwhile, given this week's further tightening both here and the US, seemingly the only remedy to the current inflation is higher interest rates - with the outlook for a prolonged period of both, and the risk that the desire to dampen inflation will damage the economy to the point of recession. The RBA's March quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, released earlier today, claims at the outset that inflation has passed its peak, and expects the current level of 7% to decline to 4.5% by the end of the year, before returning to 3% by mid 2025. That's dependent on GDP growth of just 1.25% as inflation and interest rates take effect, and with recent declines in retail sales, and the post COVID slump in the Household Savings Ratio, and a 3% decline in Household Disposable Income Growth, that may well be the case. The Statement is careful to add the caveat that the "outlook is subject to a range of uncertainties," but what is certain is the Board's focus on inflation, which in the Statement's Overview gets mentioned no less than 49 times, more than interest rates, wages, labour and the economy combined. If that's not enough, it is worth taking notice of the last paragraph, and the final sentence: "The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that." The RBA's intentions are one uncertainty Jim Chalmers won't have to deal with next Tuesday. Meanwhile, it's no secret that the small cap equity sector, having returned on average 17.42% p.a. over the past three years to be the best performing peer group in AFM's database, has struggled over the past year, falling 11.63%. There's been some recovery over the past six months, so next Tuesday at 4:15 AEST we will be hosting a "round table" webinar featuring three fund managers from the Small Cap sector.
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News & Insights 10k Words | Equitable Investors Stock Story: QBE Insurance | Airlie Funds Management |
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28 Apr 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 28 April 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 28 April 2023 |
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Economic Cross Winds Following last week's release of the Review of the Reserve Bank, which targeted the RBA's culture, management and performance, the focus now returns to next week's board meeting, and the potential for an extension of the policy pause announced in March. Supporters of this view - by no means unanimous - were encouraged by this week's inflation figure which saw annual inflation to the end of March fall to 7.0%, down from December's 30 year peak of 7.8%. Others saw it differently, particularly those who pointed out that inflation at 7% is still at least 4% above the top of the RBA's target range of 2-3%, and are wary of the inflationary effects of wages policy, plus any inflationary impact from the Government's first budget, due on Tuesday week. Thereafter it is going to be more difficult for Chalmers to blame Scomo (a.k.a. Minister for Everything) and Josh Frydenburg for Australia's inflationary and economic woes, when the root cause of the current situation was global or external. Our call is for a continuation of the pause, even if only for a month until the budget is out of the way and the picture is clearer. However, barring a recession, expectations are for inflation to remain elevated for longer than the RBA expects, so it is likely to be well into 2024 or beyond before Australia's inflation rate starts with a "2", by which time, if Jim Chalmers has anything to do with it, Philip Lowe will be long gone. Turning to the US, there is also a Fed meeting scheduled for next week, with the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell facing further economic cross winds as core inflation picked up in the March quarter, while growth was just 1.1%, well under the median forecast of 1.9%. Higher inflation, coupled with lower growth, is not a positive formula, particularly while the Fed is also grappling with falling confidence in the banking system as San Francisco based First Republic Bank suffered withdrawals of 40% of its deposits in the first three months of the year. Coming on the back of the collapse of US banks Silicon Valley and Signature, and the Swiss National Bank's emergency liquidity of US $120 billion to support the UBS absorption of Credit Suisse the risk of contagion in the US and the global banking system is heightened. This article from the Economist Intelligence Unit - although a few weeks old - argues that financial contagion is unlikely. However, if consumers or depositors' confidence is shaken by the chance of their loss of capital, this could change very rapidly. |
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News & Insights Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update March | Australian Secure Capital Fund Investment Perspectives: Banks, balance sheets and bailouts | Quay Global Investors March 2023 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Emit Capital Climate Finance Equity Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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