NEWS
5 Jul 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 05 July 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 05 July 2024 This week we're going to start on politics, and then move on to the economy - or more specifically the outlook for inflation and interest rates. This is partly because last week's Hedge Clippings only touched on the US Presidential Debate as it was still underway as we were putting the finishing touches to our commentary, and partly because we underestimated how badly Biden had performed. We did comment that "early indications were Biden faltered badly on occasions," whereas it turns out even he admitted (finally) that it wasn't his greatest performance. You can say that again! Based on current polling it looks as if Trump (assuming Biden doesn't take the hint and pull out) will be heading back to the White House in early November, complete, thanks to a stacked Supreme Court ruling that gives a President immunity from prosecution for official acts while taken in office. On the face of it, that appears somewhat bizarre, but we have to admit we don't fully understand either US constitutional law (i.e. what constitutes "official") or, if it comes to that, the American political landscape. If we did understand the latter we'd be able to explain how a country, and a democratic one to boot, of 330 million people, only has a choice between Sleepy Joe - aged 81 and showing every bit of it - or the Donald - a convicted felon, confirmed philanderer, and well known golf cheat. The really unfortunate side of the lack of choice is that competition is good - and Trump in particular needs a strong opponent to keep him honest - or at least to call out his more dishonest claims. Assuming Trump wins in November, expect the unexpected. At least there'll be plenty of material for us on a weekly basis! Meanwhile the UK's initial election results are in, and the pollsters seem to have been absolutely spot on the money - much like Rishi Sunak's staff, who somehow thought it would be smart to have a punt on the date of an early election. In politics, much like any other confrontational battle, disunity is death. The fact that the Conservatives went through four Prime Ministers in five years, (Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and finally Rishi Sunak) resulted in the inevitable. Given that Theresa May (PM 2016 - 2019) achieved some economic success (falling national debt, record employment, and income tax cuts for 32 million people) one could argue that her predecessor David Cameron has a lot to answer for by announcing a divisive and avoidable Brexit referendum dividing the nation (sound familiar?) and promptly quitting once the result was in. Although yesterday's election result was overwhelmingly in favour of a change of government, only time will tell if the UK's many problems are reversible, or if the downhill slope of the past 10 or more years can be reversed. Closer to home, Albo won't have been pleased with the distraction of one of his (now ex) senators crossing the floor, and subsequently leaving the government, just when he was wanting to focus on tax cuts for all, energy relief for all, and wage rises for all lower paid workers. We're not against these moves, but we doubt the RBA would have been overjoyed by their potential inflationary effects at a time that they're trying to curb demand, and tame inflation. The RBA would have been more pleased by household spending data released today by the ABS which showed an increase over 12 months to May of just 0.1%, with services up +2.3% while spending on goods fell -2.5%. Household spending has been trending down since September 2022, and when combined with June quarter CPI and retail trade data both due on the 31st of July will be a key part of the mix when the RBA next meets on the 6th and 7th of August. It will probably be too early at that stage to see the effects of the government's tax cuts and income support, but also too early to hope for a rate cut. News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Bull and bear case for Australian shares in the New Financial Year | Airlie Funds Management May 2024 Performance News |
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28 Jun 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 28 June 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 28 June 2024 Like it or not, this week's inflation figures confirmed an unpleasant reality: The RBA is now closer to raising rates than cutting them. Although it was only the monthly number, inflation inched up in April to 3.6%, from 3.5% in March, but then jumped to 4.0% in May. Seasonally adjusted, May's number is a tad higher at 4.1%; excluding volatile items, such as fruit, veg and fuel, also came in at 4.0% (actually down 0.1%), while the Annual Trimmed Mean figure jumped 0.3% to 4.4%. The RBA's task (although out of their direct control) might be helped by figures released yesterday showing job vacancies falling 2.7% in May, and are now down 26% since their post COVID peak in May 2022. That's it for the hard numbers, but where does it leave the RBA? Let's put it this way, the narrow path is getting narrower, to the extent we'd say they're more like walking a tightrope. The challenge for the RBA is that they have a two speed economy, or two sections (at least) of it, each of which is affected differently in the current economic times. Those on lower incomes, or reliant on assistance of some sort, are feeling the pinch, so the government is "splashing the cash" to save them. Meanwhile, more fortunate sections of the community, such as those with higher incomes, or possibly baby boomers enjoying the fruits of their previous labour, or those with the good management or fortune to have paid off their mortgage, have spending patterns that are relatively unaffected by inflation of 4%. So while the RBA is aiming on taming persistent inflation using the only tool at their disposal - trimming demand to match supply - their task is being made more difficult by a government that is trying to soften the inflationary blow, particularly for those less well off, and those hurting as a result of that inflation, including higher mortgage or rental costs, and sky high power bills. Hence Canberra's support for across the board wage increases for 2.6m lower paid workers, and tax cuts and power subsidies for all, each of which kick in from next Monday. In its effort to please those doing it tough, the government is not helping the RBA. Rather, it is helping to fuel inflation, whether it be via tax cuts or income support. That may be helping some people, but it is not helping the RBA. We were always taught that things work best when everyone pulls on the same rope, and in the same direction. This looks more like they're pulling from opposite ends. Which takes us back to the old saying, which according to the Bob Dylan song, can be attributed to Abraham Lincoln: "You can please some of the people all the time, or all of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people, all of the time." The government's dilemma is not helped by the fact that there's a countdown to an election due either next May (half Senate) or in September for the House of Representatives. So pencil in sometime between now and 24th of May next year for both. Albo will be desperate not to risk being remembered as a one-term wonder, so it was notable that Treasurer Jim Chalmers was this week spruiking a second successive budget surplus under a Labor government, while carefully avoiding to mention the impending fiscal cliff thereafter. Don't rule out an earlier date if they see things getting stickier. Of course, as pointed out by the new RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser (a.k.a. the first central banker with a rare sense of humour) in this presentation to the Citi A50 Australian Economic Forum last night. While the board is limited to influencing demand via monetary policy, they take a wide range of data into account when making their decisions. First and foremost on the list though is inflation, so watch out for their next rate decision due on Tuesday 6th of August. By next week we may have a topic other than inflation and interest rates to consider. The first debate between Biden and Trump has just concluded, with early indications Biden faltered badly on occasions, but landed a strong blow with his accusation (presumably well practised) that Trump has the morals of an alley cat. Expect snippets of both to be repeated ad infinitum in respective TV ads between now and November. News & Insights 10k Words | Equitable Investors Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund May 2024 Performance News Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) Emit Capital Climate Finance Equity Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
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21 Jun 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 21 June 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 21 June 2024 RBA's consistent message: Uncertainty abounds. There was nothing surprising in Tuesday's statement from the RBA, and definitely not the fact the cash rate was left on hold - again. Having run through what the key numbers were, or are - inflation, employment, wage growth, etc., the key message was "uncertainty" about pretty much everything. "The outlook remains highly uncertain" was the main section of the message, and the word uncertain cropped up multiple times, whether it be the outlook for inflation, economic growth, or consumption. Even "uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy" and then a "high level of uncertainty about the overseas outlook" and finally geopolitical uncertainties. Just in case anyone hadn't been listening to the RBA for the past three years or so, the bottom line was "returning inflation to target is the priority," with the RBA's nominated mid point target of 2.5% not expected for 2 years until the middle of 2026. As such, it's going to be a long haul, unless the economy drops in a hole (which it is close to doing), whereupon it's going to be a long and hard haul. Although the RBA mentioned overseas uncertainty, and specifically the geo-political risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, they didn't call out the potential for uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election in November. Not only is the outcome uncertain in what seems a close race between two candidates with an average age of 80, ( and only three years separating them which is about the only similarity between them), but in the event of a Trump victory, the uncertainty of what he will do - or what effect his policies will have, not only on America, but the rest of the world. Tariffs to replace taxes? Ending the Ukraine war in a day? Alienating European allies? Cancelling AUKUS? One wonders if the rhetoric is pure electioneering to or for the converted, or if he wins, will he follow through? Although anything is possible with Trump, uncertainty is certain. As for cancelling AUKUS, that might remove the quandary that the government has found itself in, by supporting nuclear powered warships for the Australian Navy, but not being prepared to entertain nuclear powered electricity. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Remembering Daniel Kahneman | East Coast Capital Management Investment Perspectives: The opportunity in Canadian housing | Quay Global Investors May 2024 Performance News Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund |
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14 Jun 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 14 June 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 14 June 2024 US Inflation - Progress, but could do better Jerome Powell's comments on US inflation following the Fed's FOMC meeting this week sounded somewhat similar to Hedge Clippings' school reports all those years ago: "Making progress, but could do better..." seems to be a consistent theme in both. Luckily for the US economy and US consumers, the other regular comment - "must try harder" - can't be applied to Jerome's report card, or we'd be seeing the Fed's Dot Plot, (the members' expectations for the timing of the next interest rate move), trending upwards. As it is, the trend is still down, but the timing of any move is continually being extended. At the end of last year, the expectation was that the Fed would cut up to six times in 2024. By Easter, that had reduced to three, and here we are in June, half way through the year, and rates remain at a 23-year high for the seventh consecutive meeting, and with the dot plot indicating just one or possibly two cuts this year. The same applies to Australia, except the expectation is possibly for one downward move, or none. Of course, if the CPI number is bad, then as they've said in the past they won't hesitate to raise them. As the next CPI figure is not due until the last week in June, it is unlikely that the RBA will step out of line next Tuesday when they announce the result of their two days of deliberations, particularly this week's labour market numbers, described by the ABS as "relatively tight". As such the theme of Hedge Clippings' weekly commentary is likely to remain firmly fixed on inflation and interest rates, as it has been for the past couple of years. These themes have changed with the economic times, as COVID, deflation, the Hayne Royal Commission, QE, and prior to that the GFC, have each taken centre stage, with the occasional distraction provided by various politicians both home and abroad. This theme will change too in due course, to be replaced by who-knows-what? We have previously mentioned geo-political risk, but in spite of Ukraine, the South China Sea, and Palestine, these haven't derailed global economies - yet. One theme to watch which is lurking and brewing is the possibility of an impending global trade war, as the US and Europe become more protectionist, and China seeks an outlet for increasing industrial output, and to deflect the potential social unrest at home. Throw in a move to the right in Europe, an increasingly protectionist Biden, and/or change in the White House in November, and the theme may change. News & Insights Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management May 2024 Performance News
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7 Jun 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 07 June 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 07 June 2024 Anyone waiting for the RBA to cut interest rates to mirror the downward movements in Europe and Canada would be well advised to be patient, in spite of Australia's GDP growth slowing to a crawl in the March quarter. In fact, GDP growth of +0.1% for the March quarter only just qualified as growth, and the household saving to income ratio fell to 0.9% from 1.6%. While the RBA is adamant that reducing inflation to their preferred 2-3% range is the number one target, the only possible change will come when (or if) there's a consistent downward movement from the present 3.6% level. That's only likely to occur if GDP turns negative and/or unemployment kicks upwards from the current 4.1% level, both or either of which will make the RBA's decision easier. As it is, they're walking a very fine line, with even the potential for a rate rise depending on the stimulatory effects from a combination of tax cuts, electricity bill relief, and wage increases announced, or just around the corner. More may be revealed following a speech by the RBA's newly minted Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser this afternoon, but we suspect he's going to stick to the script of inflation being the number one enemy, it's a narrow path, we know plenty of people are doing it tough, we're all in the same boat etc., etc., and sometime - possibly next year based on current forecasts - the Board will make a move - one way for the other. Hauser seems a revelation, fresh from the UK - a central banker with a sense of humour! Meanwhile, as indicated above based on Canada's and Europe's easing this week, there are signs of a gradual reduction of inflation and economic activity, possibly to be confirmed by a slowdown in US payroll figures (due tonight) if a Bloomberg survey of economists is anything to go by. Even if the economic forecasters have got it right, that's still not a guarantee that the US Fed will fall in behind Canada and the EU, although it will increase expectations. Inflation remains the name of the game, and the real risk remains that, excluding a recession, it will remain sticky or elevated, while economic growth gradually declines. On the political front India's election provided an unexpected result as PM Modi will only be able to form a coalition government. In the UK there seems to be a political shambles (nothing changes) but with the outcome a foregone conclusion and only the final numbers in doubt, while in the US there's increasing speculation (in the Murdoch press at least) that Joe Biden may not make it to the first presidential debate, let alone the poll on November 5th. News & Insights Manager Insights | Digital Asset Funds Management Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund Innovations shaping the global healthcare universe | Magellan Asset Management |
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This week's release of Australia's CPI result was not what anyone wanted to hear - unless you're a retiree wanting a higher yield on your term deposits.
31 May 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 31 May 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 31 May 2024 Inflation and Trump are both Sticking Around... This week's release of Australia's CPI result was not what anyone wanted to hear - unless you're a retiree wanting a higher yield on your term deposits. And even if you are, don't expect any media headlines about it. With the April inflation number up 0.1% to 3.6% - the second monthly rise in a row - all the focus on expectations for a rate cut can be pushed further out, and possibly even bringing the possibility of another hike before a fall. Even the 3.6% number, which included seasonally volatile components, obscured the underlying figure of 4.1%, which at least held steady since the previous month, albeit higher than February's rate of 3.9%. Drilling down through the numbers housing was up 4.6% as a whole, with rents up 7.5% - hence governments in general getting twitchy. Within the housing bucket, electricity rose 4.2% which doesn't sound too alarming until you factor in the various rebates on offer, without which the number would have been a whopping 13.9%. No wonder Jim Chalmers' budget included further handouts for electricity consumers! The other area sure to make it to the top of the news pile at present is the cost of housing, and as above, the cost of rents. Governments seem to have suddenly woken up to the fact that there aren't enough new dwellings to accommodate the rising population. April's dwelling approval data released by the ABS this week showed just 13,078 new approvals for the month, down from peak of 23,136 in March 2021, and only just higher than the 12,917 in June 2020 at the height of the COVID crisis. Given the population grew by 172,700 in the quarter to September 2023, and 659,800 over 12 months it doesn't take too much to recognise that much of the housing affordability crisis can be attributed to a severe imbalance between supply and demand. That's economics 101. The problem is that the undersupply has been growing for decades, with a current shortage of dwelling completions around 50,000 per year. Even with the current push to build more dwellings, the backlog won't be cleared in the next 5 or possibly 10 years. The issue is not just building approvals and completions. Availability - or lack thereof - of land, infrastructure, and critically a skilled labour force to actually build the dwelling, will all add to the problem. Governments may well like to say they're addressing the problem. The reality is that housing affordability will remain an issue way into the future. On a much shorter time frame, an equally sticky problem faces the US leading up to November's election. Trump's overnight criminal conviction won't change the view of his diehard supporters - if anything it will galvanise both Donald and his legions of MAGA fans. Equally, it will reinforce the opinion of dyed-in-the-wool Democrats that he's not fit for office. Trump's challenge, and Biden's opportunity, (and challenge) are the traditional conservative Republican voters who'll have an issue voting for either of them, and will thus stay at home on November 5th. Our guess is that the turn-out on the day will decide the race to the White House, not the criminal record of one candidate, nor the age of the other. You'd think that with over 333 million people (2022) and counting, either party could have found themselves a more suitable candidate? News & Insights Manager Insights | Skerryvore Asset Management Trip Insights: Asia | 4D Infrastructure April 2024 Performance News Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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24 May 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 24 May 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 24 May 2024
News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Investment Perspectives: 14 of the most important charts for data centre investors right now | Quay Global Investors April 2024 Performance News Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy |
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17 May 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 17 May 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 17 May 2024 The next federal election is not due for another year, but the budget handed down on Tuesday had all the hallmarks of a government preparing for the polls without actually setting the date. Jim Chalmers won't admit it, but based on this comment from Chris Richardson during the week: "If the enemy is inflation, the IMF says you should cut spending and raise taxes. Instead, we're getting a very big tax cut and almost matching that with large increases in spending," then we're heading for trouble. If Richardson is correct, and we're certainly not going to doubt him, then Chalmers is at odds with the IMF, as well as one of Australia's top economists. Meanwhile, Treasury (presumably the advice he's relying on) is at odds with the RBA's estimate of inflation as pointed out in this piece: "Treasury has inflation heading in one direction - down - while the Reserve Bank says the opposite. They can't both be right, and what happens will play an outsized role in deciding when, or if, the central bank cuts interest rates. The government claims the budget has been designed to take three-quarters of a percentage point off inflation this year and another half a percentage point next year, while unemployment will rise slightly to 4.5 per cent next year. Time will tell if Treasury or the central bank - which has forecast inflation to be 3.8 per cent in December this year - is correct. Without a rate cut, there is close to zero chance of an early election." So Jim's budget is increasing spending via handouts across the year, topped up by Stage 3 tax cuts due in July, and wage increases already announced or in the pipeline, hoping inflation will reduce to 2.75% mid next year (around the scheduled election time) while the RBA's own forecast is for it to still be 3.2%. Given the RBA's stated driver of interest rates is taming inflation, there's a chance of a rate cut - or possibly more than one - by this time next year, but only if their forecasts are correct, and it's a big IF based on the stickiness of inflation to date. In the government's favour, this week's employment figures (along with some positive signs from the US) showed unemployment creeping up to 4.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The RBA's other role of maintaining full employment is secondary to inflation, but it is noteworthy that the number of unemployed people has risen 13.7% from one year ago, and Michele Bullock is on record as saying an unemployment rate of 4.5% or above would be required to have a significant effect on reducing inflation. You can't blame the Treasurer for pitching the budget and blowing the "surplus" trumpet towards the next election - whether in December or in the first half of next year, but he is ignoring the longer term deficits. He'll worry about those in due course, or leave them to his successor. News & Insights Magellan Global Quarterly Update | Magellan Asset Management April 2024 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund |
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10 May 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 10 May 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 10 May 2024 As widely expected the RBA kept rates on hold following this week's board meeting, surprising no one, except possibly those brave souls predicting either a rate cut, or even a couple expecting a rise. The bottom line is inflation at 3.6% is only slowly moving - at least not in the direction the RBA would like it to, and certainly not fast enough. Adding to their concerns underlying inflation is higher than the headline number and declining even more slowly, and services inflation is even more stubborn. So if no rate cut now, when? Based on all the numbers - and it'll be the numbers that count - not for some time yet, with the RBA's statement that the outlook remains highly uncertain hitting the nail on the head. Their current expectation is for inflation to return to the preferred 2-3% range in the second half of 2025, and the middle of that range - i.e. 2.5% - sometime in 2026. Between now and then there's a whole raft of uncertainty, and we would expect the RBA to be more inclined to raise rates if the numbers look bad, than to drop them on the back of one good month, or quarter. With Australian interest rates close to 1% lower than the UK (5.25%), lower than most of Europe - range 1.5% (Switzerland) to 50% (Turkey) and 1% lower than the US, like almost everyone else, we would expect any downward movement to be relatively slow. Meanwhile next Tuesday's budget is unlikely to help, neither will the release of April's Wage Price Index numbers the next day, and looking further out neither will tax cuts due in July. Unemployment is still (just) sub 4%, and while there are certainly pockets of the workforce and economy doing it tough, the fact of the matter is that the best news on the inflation front will be an unemployment rate closer to 5% - or more. If that were to occur, then instead of inflation being stronger, and rates being higher for longer, we'd all be talking about the R word. It's too early to start that conversation, but harking back to the RBA's release on Tuesday, they noted that household consumption has been particularly weak, and discretionary spending subdued. Whatever the numbers, predictably as ever, the RBA re-enforced their dual mandates - price stability (in other words inflation) and full employment, with returning inflation to target being the priority. Turning to fund performances, and with almost 70% of April results in to date, for the first time this year there were widespread negative returns across nearly all peer groups, with the exception of Alternatives, Debt, Private Credit, and Asian Equities. That still leaves all peer groups in positive territory over 1, 3, and 5 years, with only the Property sector struggling over successive years. Property is of course notoriously sensitive to interest rates, so we were fortunate earlier this week to catch up with Winston Sammut from Euree Asset Management's A-REIT Securities Fund to discuss both the RBA's decision, the outlook for inflation, and the varied nature and sectors that make up the overall property market. While Winston is a veteran of the sector, his Euree A-REIT Fund is relatively new, launched last August. In spite of that, the Fund is topping the Property Peer Group over the last 6 months with a return of almost 27%. You can watch the interview below (recorded with the assistance of, and in the studios of Finance News Network) and see the Fund's Profile here. News & Insights Managers Insights | Euree Asset Management Powering up European network investment | 4D Infrastructure 420 billion reasons to invest in pets | Insync Fund Managers April 2024 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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3 May 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 03 May 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 03 May 2024 Jerome Powell's press conference following the US Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting held front and centre attention this week. He started with the good news, saying there's been "considerable progress" towards the FED's dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices - with inflation easing over the past year, and a strong labour market, before quickly pivoting to the bad news - inflation is too high, progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. As such, inflation is showing a lack of progress towards their 2% target, while economic activity is expanding at a "modest pace" consumer spending is robust, the labour market is tight with unemployment at 3.8%. Hence the bottom line was rates stayed on hold at 5.25 to 5.5%. Previous expectations for a May rate cut have gone out the window, and while Powell indicated it's a "meeting by meeting" decision making process based on the data, he considered a rate hike is unlikely. Longer for stronger seems to be the market's mantra and expectation, with expectations for just one or possibly two cuts later this year, a far cry from the six cuts that had been penciled in at the start of the year. For rate cuts to eventuate, Powell said inflation is going to have to move down, not sideways as it is now, or the labour market is going to have to weaken. However the 2% inflation target is the key, not employment or wages. Overall Powell's favourite word in his conference seemed to be "confidence" either lack of it, or needing it before taking action. Locally next Tuesday sees the RBA take their turn, and like the situation in the US, the Board's view will depend on the data. Household spending slowed further in March, growing just 2.1% vs 4% in February, and retail trade numbers are due next week, and are also expected to be under-whelming. In spite of this, and with the most recent CPI number at 3.8%, and wage rises and tax cuts around the corner, makes a rate cut here equally unlikely with market pundits now pushing rate cuts out until 2025. The RBA's inflation target is higher than the FED's hard 2%, but neither want to admit that their respective targets - while admirable - might be too low for the current environment. To do so would be to admit defeat, and neither will want to go down that path. News & Insights Managers Insights | Glenmore Asset Management New Funds on FundMonitors.com Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund 10k Words | Equitable Investors March 2024 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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